Weekly thought on $AMRN, $ARTH, $CARA, $DUST, $IBIO, $MTCH

Wow! That was a nice bullish week!  As predicted of a high probable bounce from last week spinning top weekly bar over supports, market fell into groove and rallied hard.

SP-500_weekly

As seen from the weekly chart above, this week solid green bar is a “snap-back, give me back my right-of-way” attitude from the bull.  I guess, at this point, it is not too far fetch to say we are going to make new high pretty soon.  Nevertheless, there seems to be a pattern of sell-off after Memorial holidays.  If you go back and look at the weekly SP500 chart, you will notice that the last week of May and early June were mostly down weeks for the last few years; there may be a pattern here that may counter this week upward momentum.  We will see if this Memorial day sell-off pattern can be broken next week.

I’ve made some adjustment to my portfolio this week… in general term, I’ve lightened up my biotech quite a bit and focused more on social media.

$AMRN bounced off nicely for another up week.

AMRN_weekly

Notice the 79 moving average line (blue dash) may be a resistance to deal with.  Price needs to overcome this hurdle before heading higher. Because of the resistance, I lightened up my Amarin position to reduce exposure in case of a correction.

$ARTH had a large hiccup this week.

ARTH_weekly

Giving the range of the price action on Friday, I guess I’m not the only one being affected by Friday news.  The good news is that price bounced back to close only slightly lower for the day.

News of dilution surprised me quite a bit ’cause I was not expecting a dilution so early in the game.  I was expecting that dilution will come after the positive human trial result so that Arch has more leverage to command higher price per share during funding.  Hence, I was “confused” enough with the early dilution news that my self-preservation mentality took over and  I reduced position size on Arch.  In a manner of speaking, my Arch truck hit a pot-hole and a bunch of my Arch stocks fell off the truck.

Notwithstanding my concern with the timing of the dilution, in Arch’s current situation, dilution is expected and should be good news ’cause Arch has the fund to move forward speedily once the human trail is successful.  Money is needed to support production of AC5 to sell in Europe in the the event of a successful human trial.  So, it “should” be all good except that I’ve less shares than before.

Although I’ve less shares than before ’cause of the “pot-hole” news, I see this as a market force readjusting my position for my own good.  In other words, it is what it is.

$CARA continued to bounce for the 2nd week.

CARA_weekly

Weekly chart looks good here with price on top of both 5 and 15 moving average lines.

However, due to my looking at the daily chart below, I sold my position in mid-week to lock in the short-term gain due to the red spinning top bar on Tuesday against the 79 moving average resistance (blue dash line).

CARA_daily

Giving Friday good price action of closing above the 79 ma line, I may have bailed too soon.  But it is still too early for me to decide if I need to jump back in next week or wait for better price.  I’m definitely watching this closely looking to jump back in- either at higher or lower price.

$DUST rallied this week and I finally found my groove to partake in this week up move.

DUST_daily

I started off with a starter position on Monday to test the water since price opened higher and was above the daily  5 & 15 moving average lines.  By Wednesday, I sold my starter position to lock in gain when price broke thru the lower support of the opening range.  (I use opening range a lot to determine if I want to hold or lock my gain by allowing price action to dictate my final action)

After price started to bounce from a gap-down on Thursday, I sensed a bounce and bought back some position, this time a bit larger than Monday starter position.  By closing bell, I added more due to $DUST ability to hold on to the bounce for the day.  Price opened strong on Friday but volatility was crazy ’cause at one point it looked like the bear was taking over.  Nevertheless, I stuck thru the volatility this time around after remembering my fiasco last time.  Thanks goodness I stuck to my gun ’cause price finally rallied hard later in the day.  Giving the coming long weekend, I decided to play safe and closed my position to lock in gain for the week.  It was a good week for me in term of finding my groove back in trading the highly volatile gold mining ETF.

$IBIO dropped slightly again for another week.

IBIO_weekly

This is no surprise due to “no news”.  Again, this is a “waiting game” stock and one must stay invested to participate in any sudden news that may spike this one up like a speed runner who can zip by before you can even blink your eyes.  So this is “dead money” with a potential reward that can more than offset the current unproductive period.  Patience is the name of the game here.

$MTCH formed a very nice weekly doji bar this week.

MTCH_weekly

And with the support of last year closing price right below this week doji bar, I’m ready to rock-and-roll on this one.  In fact, I added to my position Wednesday and also added more on Thursday to take advantage of the drop.  I added more on Friday for the bounce and to round up my position size.  $MTCH is now my major “swing-for-the-fences” play.

Fundamentally speaking, I just don’t see how and why Match Group would fall from here due to an encouraging recent 1st quarter earning update as well as positive management attitude toward the business growth.  I believe strongly in Tinder ability to grow by leaps and bounds simply because of the demand in our younger generation to stay “connect” with the ease of connection offered by Tinder.  With the proper marketing and word-of-mouth advertising, more younger generation will get to know Tinder as they’ve gotten to know Facebook.  The way I see it, Tinder is an extension of Facebook to the younger generation.  It’s the “let’s hang out” over “look what I’ve here in FB.”

Think about it, I wish Tinder was available during my college days!

So, I’m going to ride this one out despite continuing volatility.  I’m guessing there are manipulation to shake the trees here for cheap shares.  So, let’s have it and get it over with so price can start to climb again.

So, all in all, despite having some $ARTH shares falling off my truck, I’ve another good week where I was able to lock in short-term gain from $CARA, $AMRN, $DUST, and $RXDX.  Oh, I forgot to mention that I also bought $RXDX but decided to take quick profit when price approached its daily 79 moving average resistance line.

Current position:

Main port (no margin) : MTCH, IBIO, AMRN and 30% cash (up 32.5% YTD).  Btw, I have recouped my 2015 losses as of now. Yay!

Trading port (with margin): ARTH (up 34% from a reduced position size)

From my camera:

Mandela rose

 

 

 

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

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