Weekly thought on $AMRN, $ARTH, $CARA, $DUST, $IBIO, $MTCH

What’s a yoyo week.  Despite a scare of another “timber…” moment, the market did a fantastic job bouncing back from Thursday low.

SP-500_weeklyBy bouncing on Friday, the week ended with a nice spinning top next to supports!  There are three of them- 5 moving average,  79 moving average, and 12/31/2015 close.  So from my long term observation and a solid trading rule I stick by, a doji or spinning top next to support has a high probability of a bounce in the next timeframe.

So my take is that the market is going to go back up next week.

$AMRN bounced for the 2nd week which is a good sign.

AMRN_weeklyThere was a quick spike up on Friday morning to the high of $1.83 when news was out-“Vascepa(R) (Icosapent Ethyl) Showed Significant Reductions in Key Lipid Parameters in Subgroup of Women With Very High Triglyceride Levels“.  While this is a rehash of the Amarin’s successful marine trial, it is focused on the subgroup of women only.  What I like about the news is showed on the excerpt below with my highlight in underlined.

“Researchers observed that compared to placebo, Vascepa administered at 4 g/day significantly reduced triglyceride (TG), non-HDL-C, and total cholesterol (TC) levels without increasing LDL (“bad”) cholesterol in women with very high TG levels (≥500 and ≤2000 mg/dL). The analysis was led by Lori Mosca, MD, MPH, PhD, Professor of Medicine Emerita and Center Director of the American Heart Association Go Red for Women Research Network at Columbia University Medical Center, New York.

‘It is important to generate data that address the specific needs of women, especially in fields where the data could prove useful to patient care,” said Dr. Mosca. “The findings presented today, although taken from a small study sample population of women, are encouraging because the efficacy and safety of Vascepa 4 g/day were consistent with the overall MARINE results, which included 229 patients. It is vitally important to evaluate both potential benefits and side effects of therapies in women and not assume results from men are similar in women.'”

Notice the Lori Mosca is the Center Director of the American Heart Association Go Red for Women Research Network at Columbia University Medical Center.  Thus, indirectly, Amarin is getting some recognition from the AHA.  I think this peer-review can add more weight to doctors who are looking at Vascepa for the first time.

I’ve been building back my $AMRN position by adding more during the week.

$ARTH bounced slightly higher for the 3rd week after the drop from four weeks ago.

ARTH_weeklyI don’t know about you, but I’m sensing a bigger bounce coming.  It seems that price really really want to go up.  If/When the human trial comes back positive, I won’t be surprised price goes parabolic from here.  Well, summer is just around the corner and that mean we should be able to hear news about the human trial very soon.  Still holding long and strong!

Seeing SP500 was bouncing on Friday, I bought back $CARA when it was bouncing as well.

CARA_weeklyWith the previous week being a red small spinning top bar near the support, I took this week green bar as a confirmation that price may begin the next leg up from here.

Fundamentally speaking, this company has the potential to make a major dent in the painkiller market but the recent reinstatement of the Phase3 CR845 IV trial without the highest dose sidelined the upward momentum due to investors scratching their heads wondering if the other two lower doses will do the job to surpass efficacy to be called successful.  I believe the time is now when investors are coming back thinking that the other two lower doses “may” be able to do the job after all. Hence, my rationale of jumping back in for the bounce.

$DUST is my fumble that is going to bug me for awhile.  Basically, I had the ball and I was running with it; but somehow I tripped and fumbled… Here’s the story.

Due to the technical divergence on the weekly $GLD chart below,

gld_weekly_oldI deduced that gold price was going to drop soon so I chose $DUST as the vehicle to short the gold market. So the Friday before, I bought in to exercise making difficult trading decision following the technical divergence despite overwhelming “public” bullish sentiment in gold.  Unfortunately, $DUST opened lower on the following Monday so I closed the position as a quick losses due to price going the wrong way.  But by Tuesday late afternoon, I noticed that the daily bar was going to close the day with a doji bar.  Ahh!  Since doji bar at support is always my buy signal when I’m looking to buy a stock so I bought back $DUST on Tuesday waiting for a bounce on Wednesday.  Looked good so far when $DUST opened higher on Wednesday together with a reversed-split price change.  Suddenly, the higher opening was reversed by a sharp drop due to spike in gold price.  

“Oh no, not again! Perhaps this higher opening was a bullish trap due to the price change from reversed-split.  Since price is up for the day and the price is now closed to my entry point, perhaps I should get out now and keep my losses low since gold price is bouncing back up.”

With my rationale above, I again closed my $DUST position with small losses.  Well, by focusing only on my immediate thought of the price action rather than focusing on the weekly technical divergence chart which was the original reason why I wanted to buy $DUST to begin with, I gave away a highly profitable trade on Wednesday and Thursday.  I could not believe my eyes when $DUST “rocketed” higher to close the day and then gap-up on Thursday morning…  All the “expected” gain that the technical divergence was telling me was lost ’cause I fumbled my decision.  In other words, I lost my perspective when I switched my trading time-frame from swing trade into an overnight day trade.

Lesson- If I pick a trade based on technical pattern, make sure to follow thru with the pattern and not jump the gun before the pattern is confirmed to be wrong.

GLD_weeklyPer the updated $GLD weekly chart above, even after this week fall-off, the technical divergence is still intact but the risk to buy $DUST is now much higher if I enter next week.  I’ll watch and see.

Moving on.

$IBIO is holding well despite a slightly lower weekly bar.

IBIO_weeklyPrice is still above the 5 and 89 moving average support lines.  This is basically a waiting game for news on progress of IBIO-CFB03 for treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), systemic scleroderma and other fibrotic diseases.

I bought back into $MTCH Friday ’cause price looked like it bouncing off the 15 moving average and the Fib 38.2% retracement supports.  Also, I’m seeing the Elliott 5 Waves pattern here.  I marked off the wave pattern on the daily chart below:

MTCH_dailyFrom the wave patterns in the daily chart above, there is a high probability that this bounce is kicking off the 5th wave to the upside.

Fundamentally speaking, I believe the Tinder phenomenon is far from over and is still in its infancy stage.  My future vision of Tinder is that it is going to become an accepted “option” for people to use to avoid a boring evening.  Basically, if you feel boring and want to meet people, you don’t need to go to bars or other places to meet new people, you can just “pick” one of the person who “like” you back at Tinder who happen to be available as well.  I also believe that Tinder has the first wave name recognition such that it is hard for competition to catch up using the same “model” in matching people.

When you think about it, it is not that hard to create a Facebook “lookalike” but you won’t get the kind of mass appeal of Facebook who already have over billion members. I see Tinder has the same first wave recognition and its mass appeal can only make it grow larger from here.  The next big bonus is that Tinder works off from the Facebook members so it is indirectly a “dating” option for Facebook member to use.

Due to my fumble on the $DUST profitable trade, my port was down a bit this week; otherwise, it would have been a profitable week.

Current holdings:

Main port (no margin) : AMRN, MTCH, IBIO, CARA and 25% cash (up 27% YTD).

Trading port (with margin): ARTH (up 54%)

From my camera:

Three red roses

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

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