Weekly thought on $AMRN, $ARTH, $DUST, $IBIO, $MTCH

It was a tricky week with the bull gaining ground at the beginning of the week only to give back all gain plus more by end of the week.

SP-500_weekly

Price is now sitting on support at the 79 MA as well as the 12/31/2015 closing (yellow line).  There is a 50/50 market may bounce on Monday.

Again, I sensed a storm coming on Thursday and decided to liquidate most of my positions except for $IBIO and $ARTH to protect my capital.  Furthermore, I also loaded up on ETFs to short the market using $QID, $SPXU, $TZA, $SKF on Thursday expecting a red opening on Friday.  Again, the market did not conform to my expectation and kicked off Friday with a strong upward momentum from pre-market action.  Instead of a deep red opening, I was faced with a bullish rally; needless to day, I closed all my ETFs for small losses.  But then, the market began to give way later in the day and ended Friday down 185 points on the DOW.

Again, my timing sucked but I’m fully aware that I’m trying to short the market in the bull territory; hence my quick run to cover Friday morning instead of holding on to my ETF shorts even though I turned out to be “right” by end of the day.  Sometimes, it is not about being “right” at the end, it is about protecting capital when my expectation of a deep red opening did not materialized. In summary, while my timing sucks, I did not regret closing out for small losses.

$AMRN closed the week slightly higher from last week down bar

AMRN_weekly

I also sold out my position on Thursday when I sensed the storm coming.  But then the weekly script on Friday reached new high at 15,850 so I decided to buy back some shares.  I will look to add back shares to build back my position. Although Amarin is facing a tough headwind due to the fact that price is below the major resistances of the weekly 79 & 89 MA lines, I take comfort that price is still above the downtrend line for the time being.

$ARTH is holding steady with a week up slightly.

ARTH_weekly

There is a strong support while waiting for the result of the human trial to be released this summer. Arch Therapeutics is one stock I will not trade in & out no matter how I feel about the general market.  I’m holding this one all the way.  There is no telling how high this one can spike if the news of the human trial is positive all the way. Holding long and strong.

I entered into a new position this week- $DUST.  I bought $DUST on Thursday but sold out Friday morning.  Later I decided to stay with my conviction that the technical divergence b/w the oscillator and price action on the $GLD chart may foretell a correction in gold is coming; thus I bought back $DUST on Friday before the market close.

Below is the $GLD weekly chart showing the technical divergence I mentioned:

GLD_weekly

Due to the volatility of the gold market, this is purely a “gambling” bet despite my own interpretation of the chart.  Sometimes, I took a “tough” play that bothered on “gambling” just to exercise my resolve to execute a “difficult” trade based on technical signal despite an overwhelming opposite sentiment.

DUST_weekly

Meanwhile, $DUST bounced slightly off the bottom from last week bar even though it was slightly down for the week. If I’m wrong, I lose money on $DUST but I gain mental strength in taking difficult trade regardless. My mental stop is below the current low of $1.27.

$IBIO showed strength by gaining slightly this week.

IBIO_weekly

By not having a down week, last week doji bar is confirmed as a pausing bar.  I’m still a big believer in iBIO’s CFB03 for treatment of fibrosis diseases:

IBIO CFB03

$IBIO and $ARTH are two stocks I will not sell despite my negative sentiment on the general market.

$MTCH has a great week. After some delayed bullish action the week before, price opened strong and continued to rally four days straight and peaked out on Thursday morning.

MTCH_weekly

However, due to my negative sentiment of the general market, I decided to take my profit and run when price traded back down to the $14.95 resistance after breaking out of $15 at the open on Thursday.  I did not buy back shares on Friday ’cause I want to see how the market react to the Lockup expiration on May 17th next Tuesday.  I may start to buy back shares if price drops further on Monday.  Overall, I’m still bullish on Match Group but I want to protect my gain at the same time.

Due to gain on $MTCH, my port has another strong week.  As of now, I’m back to being a “stone throw” away from gaining back my 2015 losses.

Current holdings:

Main port (no margin) : IBIO, AMRN, DUST and 66% cash (up 29% YTD).

Trading port (with margin): ARTH (up 54%)

From my camera:

069

 

 

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

15 replies

  1. Really like your conversational style of writing. Good to see you own up to some human mistakes. So many others try to make out that they have the infallable formula….phoey! Im long and deep ARTH. Agree, this is NOT a trading stock right now….an announcement for the device trial could happen anytime and leave us behind. Im holdin N’000’s @ 0.18. Cant see how it can fail (famous last words!) as 3D matrix (essentially the same MIT product) already gained a CE mark without a human trial….but their sales are abysmal. Thats where my worry is. Arch needs a really good marketing/distrib partner coz they only have 5 staff and they arent gonna shift much product! All depends on the deal Arch do as to how it affects sp, but Norchi is no fool so far…..slow but hare and tortoise. I contacted a top heart surgeon re AC5 and he got v excited and says he wants to trial it asap.
    Havent heard of IBIO, but will research.
    Rgs
    AlanH (native of Stockgumshoe.com)

    • PS: Where can I find your fundamental research re IBIO?
      Thanx

      • Hi Alan,

        Thanks for your interest. What really got me into iBIO is this video I watched (see link below)

        Below is the latest one but I watched the one in the above link

        Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick’s excitement and confidence in her research to treat fibrosis diseases are unmistakable. Her recent discovery of the science to treat fibrosis diseases, essentially a killing diseases that can also become by-products of other organ diseases, looks promising. Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick chose to work with iBIO because of its plant-based bio-manufacturing technology. And iBIO is backed by the Kenneth Dart of the Dart Container Corporation.

        I believe in Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick as much as I believe in Dr. Norchi of Arch Therapeutics, that is why I bet big on $ARTH and $IBIO. They have the ideal combination of incredible technology managed by strong, intelligent, and highly motivated personnel.

        There are other investors who are more dedicated to the iBIO investment and you can go to their website to begin your due diligence; it will save you a lot of time googling. See link below:

        https://johnrambostocks.wordpress.com/

        Cheers!

      • Thanks for the hours youve saved me.
        Alan

    • Alan, thanks again for the positive feedback. I did some research on 3D matrix and here are my thought:
      (Don’t forget the caveat, I’m only expressing my thought based on my limited understanding on how the peptides of Arch and 3DM work. I could be wrong on my assumptions but I have to go with whatever information I could get.)

      1. 3DM “version” of the peptides from MIT seems to me is the one with thick viscosity since its function is to “fill” the hole of an injured organ. Thus, while it can still function as a hemostatic medical device, it is not as efficient as Arch’s AC5 when it comes to ease of application. Imagine you’ve a wound with bleeding vessels underneath other organs, will you prefer to use AC5 which I believed you can just squirt into the areas where the bleeding vessels are and the peptides will do the work and form barriers on wherever they landed or will you prefer to apply the 3D Matrix’s peptide like you apply vaseline? The liquid form of AC5 can go anywhere and everywhere FAST, even areas your fingers can’t reach.

      2) I believe in the marketing prowess of Dr. Norchi as well as his connections in the biotech and financial community based on his past professional experiences. I’m sure Dr. Norchi will find a way to convince the medical community why Arch’s AC5 is far superior than 3DM if it becomes necessary.

      3) There is a youtube video that stated Dr. Rutledge Ellis-Behnke, Phd, the creator of AC5 from MIT, has a financial interest in Arch Therapeutics Inc. Another positive point is that when Dr. Rutledge Ellis-Behnke was explaining the miracle work of AC5 as a next generation hemostatic device, he is actually referring to Arch’s AC5, not 3DM’s whateveryoucallit.

      Again, thanks for your comment!

      • Oh I wasnt suggesting Puramatrix, http://puramatrix.com/matrix ie 3DM was a better product….(small personal position bought only as a hedge (and now sold) , coz ARTH was taking too long to begin its trial and its MIT licence is ‘time to market’ sensitive….MIT wants some money PDQ or youre out) , Its just that its based on the same fundamental science as AC5 and is already CE approved, so I dont see how ARTH would not get approval. I checked with the UK distributor and they could hardly remember selling ANY product this year and hardly any last year ….at ~Euro500 per application of this little known/understood product, are you surprised?
        As for AC5 being spray on….Im not so sure, although I have high hopes and wouldnt be surprised. The only video Ive seen rolled it on with a Qtip.
        Still, ….Loooooooong ARTH.
        Lash out $49pa and visit stockgumshoe.com ….loads of bio info there by our resident genius Doc KSS MD Phd, and at least 2000 comments on ARTH’s dedicated thread, where Im the referee/author (but earn zippo for the privalege).

        PS Looked at IBIO vids. Loved the enthusiasm of the woman, but sensing some red flags…..more questions/explanations once Ive dug deeper. Thanks for the links.

      • Regarding AC5, I’m not sure about spraying but I think squirting will do just as well. Imagine squirting a bottle with a tiny hole and you see a stream of liquid going to the direction you are pointing to. This is good enough for most purpose and is much better than spraying.

        Regarding red flags on iBIO, there will always be red flags but it all come down to the players at the end. Remember when Steve Jobs came back to Apple, the company had red flags all over the places; nevertheless, Steve tackled each red flag starting with getting cash infusion from Microsoft and then onto the new product- iMac. Afterward, launched iPOD and then onto iPhone and later iPad.

        Notwithstanding red flags for both $ARTH and $IBIO, one has to bite the bullet and speculated based on one’s due diligence which should support the belief that the players in the game will correct the red flags the way Steve Jobs tackled Apple’s.

        Cheers!

      • Re yours at 5.50: Please dont imagine for one second that Im knocking ARTH …..Ive FAR too much invested to attempt any damage. And I agree that their management team are far superior to 3DM’s….you can tell by the ‘consideration time’ they expend before making any move. But its worth others here knowing all the facts to assist their DD. I assume neither of us are writing to pump our stock position.
        As for ‘Steve Jobs tackled each red flag starting with getting cash infusion from Microsoft’. Im not sure thats entirely accurate. Being v old, as I remember, some sort of US Gov commission ‘encouraged’ MS to support Apple’ because it looked like they were in danger of going bust and they weren’t keen on MS having a clear field monopoly. Still, no doubting, SJ later did some wonders by evolving new product. But I agree, the quality of management is crucial and Arch wins that competition hands down.

      • Hi Alan, I don’t doubt your sincere effort in sharing your due diligence and it is actually quite productive in bringing out issues for all to see.

        Despite Microsoft’s personal self-interest in giving Apple much needed cash infusion, the end result was the same; Steve took care of the red flag in the cash shortage department. And to Microsoft’s surprise, Steve took Apple in a totally different direction with iPod and iPhone and the rest is history.

        Perhaps, Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick and Dr. Norchi will surprise us the way Steve surprised everyone by turning Apple from an almost bankrupted company to the most valuable company in the world. And I guess this is what I’m betting on- a nice surprise from $ARTH and $IBIO.

        Thanks so much for your comments and feedback.

        Cheers!

      • Oh BTW: Arch doesnt have an exclusive licence (though Norchi liked to say so…beware his innuendo and selective use of language like, ‘we have started our trial’ turned out to be ‘Weve submitted an application form….or ‘Weve applied to start a trial but the admin process is holding us up’ . I checked with the EU’s device trials director who said ‘We have no backlog of applications’. Thats when I bought 3DM shares just in case!). 3DM also has an ‘exclusive’ licence and, in fact, theres pre-dates Arch’s. Exactly where MIT drew the line between them is not clear. I suspect MIT is playing both sides to their advantage. Also 3DM have apparently started a US trial…..not sure if its in humans, but a trial and at least a year ahead of AC5 in US !

      • I believe Arch has exclusivity in the formula for AC5 which I think is the more important one for hemostatic purpose. That is all I care about. The reason why I brought up the video with Dr. Rutledge Ellis-Behnke is that he basically endorsed Arch’s AC5. As far as I’m concerned, the one with the best management team will win regardless of the “alleged” standing of the licensing right with MIT.

  2. Really sorry, keep thinking of other stuff that seems relevant to me: Arch has only 5 employees and little remaining cash. Norchi personally told me during a conf call, that he expects to fund a US trial from sales of AC5 in EU. That was when he expected the EU trial to begin Q3 2015. In one form or other, we must expect a dilution to fund the US trial, or if he waits for sufficient EU revenue, the US trial will begin in 2020.

    • I’m not worried about dilution at this point ’cause a successful human trial will turn the tide easily. A dilution after a successful human trial may, imho, actually spark a rally due to removing another hurdle in the getting AC5 to the market place.

      • A rally in the sp?…ok. But unless he sells off a fair few float shares (float = ~83mill), where does the cash come from? Even at a dollar per, thats not a huge amount of cash if he only sells 20%. And getting this to US market aint gonna be cheap. Plus a lot of <33cent warrant/option stock will be unloaded to secure peoples present exposure…..plus he needs to entice a marketing/distrib/partner. Sure, they may stump up some $, but only in return for a good few shares. Personally, Ill be selling as soon as approval is announced, then hope to re-enter once the marketing/US etc issues are much clearer.
        GL and BFN

      • I think we are jumping the gun at this point ’cause we’ve no idea what Dr. Norchi has under his sleeve once the human trial comes back positive. Perhaps there is a major partner waiting in the wings waiting for the proof-of-concept to be established. If all the feedback about doctors and surgeons being highly interested in what AC5 can do, what do you think BPs are thinking about AC5 then?

        I like to think in term of glass half-full rather than half-empty. The concerns you brought up are valid but that is why price is still under a buck. But once those concerns are addressed in whatever manner Dr. Norchi can come up with, sp will react accordingly. Thus, who are the players in the company I bought stock in is a very important factor to me. Remember, people solve problems and that is why I placed such a key role in the player when deciding where I placed my money in a high-beta speculative stock. Of course, we all have our own “feel” for the players and that add to the speculative nature of the game.

        Good luck to all and Cheers!

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