Weekly thought on $AMRN, $ARTH, $BIOC, $CARA, $GWPH

To say the bull has tenacity is an understatement.  The bull defies “extra” gravity bestowed by the bear and flies back to the sky.

SP-500_weekly

This week is a solid green bar which completely reversed whatever downward momentum the bear could muster last week.  The bull is now only a stone throw away from crossing over the SP500 downtrend line started from last year August. It also re-enters the trading range of $2074.00 and $2134.71, a consolidation area next to the historical high.  In other words, the bull is ready to tackle the next objective- to make at least one new historical high before the Presidential Election in November.

$AMRN closed slightly positive for the week.

AMRN_weekly

Technically, we have a small spinning top weekly bar next to resistance.  From my book, this has a propensity to correct; however, since price has recently break out of a downtrend line and the fundamental favors a trend of rising weekly script numbers due to recent positive settlement with FDA regarding off-label marketing, I expect this spinning top bar to behave like a “pausing” bar in a continuing long-term upward trend.  In other words, there are enough positive fundamental improvements to neutralize the propensity to correct and provide a 50/50 chance of either direction next week.  Don’t forget the interim Phase 3 data review is also in progress.

Some may think I’m being bias on my interpretation of the spinning bar against a major resistance ’cause I’m long on $AMRN.  I’ll agree only if there are no change in the fundamental; but this is not the case here.  Take a look at Amarin’s Vascepa market share in the chart below (courtesy of ShortFishFry from Stocktwits):

AMRN_MrkShare

There is no denying that Vascepa weekly script number is gaining market share just by looking at the chart above. Total Weekly script is now a stone throw away from crossing over 15K, so please pardon my ignoring the potential correction based on spinning top bar next to resistance for the time-being.

$ARTH has an expected correction week which is unavoidable after five straight weeks of up bars.

ARTH_weekly

There are and always will be swing-traders taking profit in the market regardless of how positive we feel about the human trial outcome.  Most swing-traders don’t even bother with the fundamental as long as the momentum is there for them to take the opportunistic trade.  Since the human trial is still in progress and there are no new information to come out yet, I expect to see another rally to come back soon to take price to over 50 cents soon.

Take a look at the $TRTC chart below, do you see a similar pattern here?

TRTC_weekly

Price corrected quite a bit after an accelerated price move to the upside but eventually the fundamental win over and the bargain hunters came right back in to take price to new high.

The potential market for Arch’s AC5 is so huge and disruptive that price will eventually head higher when more and more investors discover this gem.

$BIOC finally closed the week with a green bar after taking a dip below the lows of the last three weeks.  A spinning top with a long-tail below next to support is a potential bottom as far as I’m concerned.  I added more this week expecting price to bounce from here in anticipation of the coming earning update in early May.

BIOC_weekly

Notice that the tail of the weekly bar low touched the low of the Bollinger band which is also turning up.  Furthermore, this week low is higher than the low of the Feb 26th which mean a rally here could mean the beginning of the 3rd wave of the 5-waves Elliott Wave Theory.  The 3rd wave is usually the longest wave of the 5 waves.

$CARA closed the week with another green bar.

CARA_weekly

Notice that last week doji bar is now confirmed as a “pausing” bar instead of a possible topping formation next to resistance simply because the fundamental favors the long side due to expectation of FDA lifting the clinical hold of their IV CR845 Phase 3 trial.  Between technical and fundamental, fundamental always win if the event/news is expected to be positive and imminent.

$GWPH also closed strong for the week.

GWPH_weekly

There is a strong possibility of a breakout from the bullish flag pattern.  However, I sold my GWPH position early in the week and allocated the resource to buy more $CARA.  I sold not because I don’t believe in $GWPH but simply because I believe $CARA can provide a faster return on the money.  In other words, I believe I’ll hear about the lift of CARA’s clinical hold before I hear about the next result of the Phase 3 trials from GW Pharmaceutical.  I could be wrong but I made the decision based on the $CARA breaking out of the $7 resistance last Tuesday.

Overall, my port is now more than half-way regaining my 2015 losses.

So far, so good.

My 2 cents.

From my camera:

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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