Weekly thought on $ARTH, $AMRN, $CARA, $DMRC, $GWPH

Wow! What’s a week!  But not without a hiccup along the way. Tuesday opened as if the market was going to collapse but ended the day much higher thanked to Yellen’s speech.  Friday price action was a repeat of Tuesday so the week ended strong!

SP-500_weekly

Notice that price is now near the downtrend line that began from July of 2015.  The yellow bubble is the distance to this trendline resistance.  The bull must work hard to break thru this resistance to reclaim the long-term bullish trend.

I must say this week is a strong week for my port as well.

$ARTH closed the week with a 44% gain!  Finally, this little gem is getting noticed.

ARTH_weekly

Although we just have a parabolic rise in price, I believe this is only just the beginning.  The magnitude of the potential revenue streams coming from ARTH’s AC5 when approved is tremendous due to the many obvious off-label use of AC5 “liquid bandage” that can be used internally (to be tested in future human trial) and externally (current human trial).  Imagine this gem’s market cap is only a paltry $39.5 millions as of current price.  Revenues stream can grow to billions in so many years after approval.  There is a possibility that I may be watching the growth of a gigantic beanstalk coming out of Arch’s magic bean.

$AMRN has a good week as well since it closed with a nice green bar after last week doji bar.

AMRN_weekly

This week up bar confirmed a bounce from last week doji bar.  To me, a doji bar has a powerful impetus to form a bottom or top when nearing support or resistance in either short-term or long-term time-frames.  The weekly chart above show that Amarin is only a stone-throw away from breaking out the downtrend line to commence the long-term upward trend.  That is what I’m betting on.

Fundamentally speaking, Amarin officially announced the commencement of the interim data review that offer a “small” chance of stopping the on-going trial for safety and efficacy data.  Since I’ve been taking Vascepa for the last three years, I personally believe that the trial has a very good chance of success.  Last week the Amarin weekly chart spoke to me with a doji bar and I’m back in on this position with full-strength.

$CARA closed strong with another green up bar to confirm the bounce to the upside that began from the doji bar from three weeks ago.  Remember, per my book, a doji bar next to support has a high probability of creating a bottom and a bounce.

CARA_weekly

Next resistance is $8.30 and I believe price can fly right thru it if the FDA lift the clinical hold on its recent Ph3 trial.

Fundamentally speaking, the more I learned about Cara Therapeutics the more I like this stock.  I also learned that its Phase 3 trial involved a compound CR845 that is “also” an opiate as well but without the normal opiate side-effect.  This clarification gives me more conviction that this drug has a high chance of success in reducing pain since its approved sister opiate painkillers are already working well.  But by taking out the side-effect of the current batch of opiate painkiller, we have a huge market waiting in the wings.  This is definitely another potential giant beanstalk from CARA’s magic bean.

Here is an excerpt from Cara’s website (underlined is my own emphasis):

CR845
CARA POSSESSES PERIPHERALLY-SELECTIVE MOLECULES THAT INTERACT WITH KAPPA OPIOID RECEPTORS PRESENT ON PERIPHERAL, PAIN-SENSING NERVES.

These compounds exhibit potent analgesic and anti-inflammatory properties in animals. Unlike currently marketed opioids, these new compounds do not produce inhibition of intestinal transit (ileus), do not induce life-threatening respiratory depression, nor do they elicit signs of addiction or euphoria in animal models.
The degree of kappa receptor selectivity displayed by CR845 ranks as best-in-class compared to all other previously developed compounds for this therapeutic target. Moreover, CR845 displayed no significant affinity for any other non-opioid known receptors.

Source: http://www.caratherapeutics.com/cr845.shtml

I’m just glad to be able to get in $CARA at this current low price.

$DMRC did not do too well this week.

DMRC_weekly

After Tuesday’s surge, price gave back all gain in the next three days to close the week negative.  I didn’t like the red spinning top weekly bar directly on the 79 & 89 resistance. CEO’s sales of additional 5,834 shares on March 24th outside his monthly automatic sales of 5,000 shares did not help the price action either.

This one is a waiting game for news of update from Digimarc. Recent news “Portland Trail Blazers Deploy Digimarc Barcode to Elevate Fan Experiences through Engaging Mobile Content” is a good start but I believe we will hear more this late April in the 1st quarter earning conference call.  Seeing a possible longer incubation period, I’ve reduced position size on $DMRC and allocated more to $AMRN and $CARA.

$GWPH gave back some gain from last week due to organized bear attack.

GWPH_weekly

While the weekly chart showed a red bar for this week, the daily chart below showed that price is bouncing off a double-bottom formation.

GWPH_daily

Friday green bar kicked off the forming of double-bottom.  More green bars next week will confirm the double-bottom formation.  Also, the 5MA is now touching the 15MA which create the possibility of the 5MA bouncing off the 15MA after touching it.

Fundamentally speaking, I think the short-sellers got it all wrong about the potential of GW Pharmaceuticals.  I also do not believe the existing political climate on cannabis will affect the FDA approval of its epilepsy drug-Epidiolex since there are children with serious epilepsy attacks who needed this drug. I don’t believe the FDA will allow politic to stop approving a drug if the multiple Phase3 trials prove it to be effective. Otherwise, why would the FDA agreed to the following actions shown in below bullet-points:

GWPH_epidiolex

Source:http://www.gwpharm.com/Epidiolex.aspx

Overall, my port has another good week and I’m on the way to recover last year losses.

So far, my current positions $ARTH, $AMRN, $CARA, $DMRC, and $GWPH all have potential to move much higher in 2016 with future positive binary events- notice the key word “positive”!  As the sayings go, there is no spectacular gain without risk.  I’m looking forward to see if my bets pay off in leaps & bounds for my port this year.

My 2 cents

From my camera:

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Categories: trading journal

2 replies

  1. Really enjoyed reading this……friendly writing style and common sense approach to the subject. We follow ARTH closely at Stock Gumshoe.

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