Weekly thought on $DMRC, $ARTH, $IBIO, $BIOC, $RBYCF

This week came off with another bounce from last week spinning top.  So far so good.

SPY_Weekly

Notice that $SPY is also approaching the resistance at around $194.50.  Unless this resistance is taking out soon, it is very possible we may be “stuck” in the consolidation range of $181.9x and $194.5x for a quarter or two.

$DMRC had a tepid week.  Everyone is expecting another repeat of last quarter meltdown after the earnings call so shares were sold to prepare for the possibility.  The way I see this, profit-taking and short-sellers activities were the reason price declined from the recent $44.xx high to current price.  In a manner of speaking, those who wanted to sell already sold. Unless the short-sellers are prepared to “fund” the already over-funded shorting campaign to push the price further down, I don’t see how the shorts can expect a big drop when there may be a whole lot of eager investors with money waiting to pound on this stock after the earning call especially if it includes positive operational guidance in term of adoption rate.

I believe the existing short-sellers underestimate the significance of having GS1 backing the Digimarc barcode and Discovery system.  Take a look at one of the front-pages at GS1-US website below:

DMRC_GS1

Source: https://sites.gs1us.org/dwcode

As you can see, GS1 “conventionalizes” the Digimarc barcode system by assigning a brand new code-word called “DWCode”.  The creation of the new code-word is genius as well as a being practical.  Basically, GS1 is promoting Digital Watermark, not Digimarc.  It so happens that Digimarc is the company that supplies the technology for the DWCode to hide the UPC barcode in the packaging for easy scanning.

And to go one step further as a bona-fide support of the DWCode, anyone can acquire the DWCode directly from the GS1 website.  Don’t believe me, below is an excerpt from the Q&A section of the GS1 website:

12. When will DWCode be available on the GS1 US website?
We will be showing prototypes of the ordering and management system at the
National Retail Federation “Big Show” next week and expect general availability by
the end of February, 2016 through the GS1 US website.

Source: https://sites.gs1us.org/files/GS1US_Digimarc_faqs.pdf

Basically, anyone applying for a UPC barcode will have immediate access to the DWCode as an option as well.  What more can Digimarc ask for?  This is the ultimate blessing and support from the Godfather of the retailers.

This paradigm shift in the retailers’ world using DWCode is going to transform the technological landscape of the retail store-fronts in the most significant way that we only get to glimpse at in the Sci-Fi movies.  This paradigm shift is coming and there is nothing the short-sellers can do about it.  My 2 cents is that they probably are not even aware of the magnitude of this paradigm shift and the potential price appreciation that is going to go with it.   I’m betting that we will hear a lot more of the “general movement” of this paradigm shift in next week earning call.  Any hint of a “full speed ahead” may cause a mother-of-all short-squeeze.  The shorts should be afraid, very scared even.  Remember, short-sellers maximum gain is only 100% while the downside is literally unlimited if they cannot find sellers to cover.  Folks, we are talking about covering 1,396,400 short-position from a total of only 7,510,000 float in which a lion shares of the float is in strong hands.

Therefore, I’m ready for next week.  In fact, I even raised add’l funding to be ready to add more if price does go down next week.  IMHO, this is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity to participate in the company with the technology that is an integral part of the paradigm shift in the retailers industry.

$ARTH is still basing at the $0.18 level while waiting for human trial.  Below is an excerpt from the recent SEC filings (page 22 of Form 10-Q):

Research and Development Expense

Research and development expenses during the three months ended December 31, 2015 were $414,003, an increase of $14,268 compared to $399,735 for the three months ended December 31, 2014. The increase in research and development expense is primarily attributable to an increase in expenses associated with pre-clinical development expenses and manufacturing and quality management system consulting and advisory related expenses partially offset by a decrease in stock based compensation and payroll. Research and development expenses are expected to increase as a result of our plans to commence clinical studies as resources permit. Site initiation has been completed and patient screening for enrollment has commenced.

Bold and underlined is my own emphasis.

Basically, the human trial is in motion.  There is not much to do but wait, wait, and wait.

$IBIO bounced slightly this week.  With Kenneth Dart on board with iBIO, I’m not worried while waiting for the development of fibrosis treatment.

$BIOC did not have a good week at all.  Price had broken thru the last year 12-10-2015 $1.26 low.  Due to the extreme technical weakness, I decided to cash out some shares (as losses) for the possibility of buying them back cheaper.  If the coming earning update does not meet expectation, my concern is that price will drop below a dollar easily.  So, I want to be ready to buy back shares cheaper.

$RBYCF continued to hold gain from two weeks ago despite a small correction in gold price.  I’ll continue to hold for possible 100% recovery if not more.

My 2 cents

From my camera:

orange-green

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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