Well, it was quite an ugly week to kick off 2016. After going back to the January performance for the past few years, 2011 to 2013 kicked off their years with strong rally which confirmed the “January effect” sentiment. 2014 & 2015 started off negative but recovered by February. Perhaps, 2016 can repeat the recent pattern with a strong February recovery? Time will tell.
Thanks to positive fundamental news regarding Global Health Care Supplier Perrigo adopting Digimarc Barcode system, price was able to recover some of the selloff early in the week. The way I see this, this news kicked off the launching of the Digimarc ship that is going to travel around the world. There is one week left before the NRF (the 2016 Big Retail Show) begin and we may have more update when Digimarc presents at Needham & Company’s 18th Annual Growth Conference on January 13 this Wednesday.
Folks, this is a strong start for Digimarc to have Perrigo kicks off the adoption process of the Digimarc barcode system. Since there are no competition that I know of, we can only expect to hear further news on adoption by other big manufacturers and suppliers during the rest of 2016 and beyond. We will begin to look at the quarterly earning update to see how many more items are added to use the Digimarc barcode the way investors look at how many new subscribers were added to the Netflix subscription total. The biggest difference b/w Netflix model and the Digimarc model is the cost structure. Digimarc has no huge content fees to pay studio the way Netflix has to pay. What this mean is that at the Digimarc revenues stream begin to grow, stock price will continue to appreciate to match up with the cash balance. Of course, all this talk now is based on my assumption that there is going to be a full-blown adoption by the rest of the world to use Digimarc barcode system. That is my big bet here and my largest position in my portfolio.
iBIO is a speculation based on the result of a pre-clinical tests that fibrosis diseases can be reversed. I’m going to cut and paste an excerpt from a promotional interview that gives a much better picture of why I’m in this one.
T: The pre-clinical IPF data show it’s arresting and reversing the process of Fibrosis which is very compelling. From my understanding no one can mimic this process because you are using a proprietary peptide derived from plants. Is this true?
RE: Yes, that’s right. Since we licensed the patents, we have done some very interesting work and created very compelling pre-clinical data, hence why we are committing to move forward with his project. The uses of our core technologies will have a big impact on how we can apply and use them in this market. Eventually, I think this work will have a positive impact on how broadly we can explore the various types of fibrosis. The fibrosis programs more than the Plant Made Pharmaceutical platform technology is what could have the biggest impact value. I believe this will all start to become clearer once we begin getting human clinical data. On a side note, I think the PMP platform is what the Dart group is most interested in for true long-term investment returns. They are focused on the added value in manufacturing, given the lower OPEX and CAPEX of the process. However, the worldwide adoption of a new manufacturing base takes time and requires confidence, regulatory approval, training and that sort of stuff, etc.
Sure, you can counter with an argument that this promotional interview piece is a pump piece but I like what I see and hear from the video presentation by Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick in the 2015 Nashville- S.C.I.E.N.C.E.–Scientific Discoveries. Click on link:
to see the video.
My entire thesis supporting my speculation in iBIO is based on my belief in Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick. I believe in her work and her decision to go with iBIO. Thus, even without the actual Phase I trial yet, I’m betting my money that Dr. Carol Feghali-Bostwick’s discovery will make history using iBIO as the technological foundation.
Biocept kicked off 2016 by launching blood-based test for prostate cancer and expands offering in breast cancer. This is definitely a waiting game for the liquid biopsy business to gain traction from the medical community. This speculation is highly volatile but the risk and waiting is well worth it ’cause once the Biocept’s diagnostic tests become THE tests to use, stock price will climb.
I bought this speculation for a simple reason- the stock price is extremely oversold. It is my belief that the intrinsic value of Rubicon worth many times more than current price. I believe the company has the professional know-how to resolve its current mining issues.
Arch Therapeutics is going to kick off 2016 with a human trial for its AC5 hemostatic device. Once it is proven to work on human, the road will look brighter ahead. Nothing new here but to wait for human trial result which should be released by mid-year.
You must notice that I haven’t been posting charts along with my comments. This is because there is no point in posting charts reflecting current volatility when I’m making bets on the long-term success of the fundamental stories behind my stock picks. My posting charts before was my way of figuring out possible exit and entry points. Now, I’m in for the long-haul as long as fundamental development continues to be positive.
2016 will be a VERY interesting year for my port.
My 2 cents
From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)