Weekly thought on $DMRC, $IBIO, $BIOC, $AKAO, $ARTH

The market held well over the Thanksgiving week. Previous week bullish engulfment bar is still fully intact and functional as a bullish indicator.

SPY_Weekly

The new high is really not that far away from where the market is now.  It’s now half-way between 2014 close and the new high @ $213.78.

SPY_Monthly

From the above monthly chart, momentum indicators below tells me that the market is going to go up from here.  In December, my bet is that the market is going to make new high just as it had done so in December 2014.

$DMRC had a strong Thanksgiving week.

DMRC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, price is now on the verge of breaking out of the downtrend line to start a long-term bullish trend is my take of the direction.

As time approaches the year-end and toward the January 2016 Big Retail Show, we are going to find out who are on board to support the Digimarc barcode and Discovery solution since its booth is 3x larger than last year booth.  That is a lot of real estate in a trade show so my bet is that we may be surprised with even more positive developments come January.DMRC_monthly

From the monthly chart above, look at that giant green bullish engulfment monthly bar!  I can sense the bullish tendency and price is looking to head much much higher is my take of it.

$IBIO recovered nicely from last week red bar.  Price is now back at the consolidation range above $0.65.

IBIO_weekly

I do not know whether this week rally had anything to do with the recent Ebola news but it goes to show that iBIO is looked upon as one of the few companies with technologies that can manufacture large amount of vaccine quickly and effectively.  This alone places $IBIO as the most undervalued company in my book.  With population expansion that tends to push the current infrastructural setup to the limit, diseases can spread out-of-control if there are lapse in hospital judgement in releasing contagious patients back to the public.  Thus, my 2 cents is that iBIO is a company I want to have some shares in my port for a long-term hedging bet. And this is on top of my intention of buying iBIO for the fibrosis treatment play.  This fibrosis angle has the potential to turn iBIO into a BP in record time when its IBIO-CFB03 is found to reverse fibrotic diseases in its Phase I trial in 1st quarter 2016.

IBIO_monthly

From the monthly chart above, it is now a doji monthly bar with a long tail below.  That could mean the price direction is better than 50/50 for a bounce from here.

$BIOC, although down for the week, formed a spinning top next to early November support.  I’m betting that a bounce is coming soon from here.

BIOC_weekly

Once news of availability of prostrate cancer test or PDL-1 test or Blue Cross nationwide coverage, price will surely bounce from here is my take of it.

$AKAO gave back some gain from last week.  We should be hearing some top-line result soon in December so this is now a roll-the-dice speculation.  Since I’ve only bare-boned position, it won’t affect me either way.

AKAO_weekly

Even with a down week, the weekly chart look like price may bounce.  But then the chart doesn’t mean much when we are waiting for a binary event such as the top line result of its antibacterial product-Plazomicin.

$ARTH did not have a good week since there are too many nervous holders getting tired of waiting.  As far as I’m concerned, I’m not going to blame Arch Therapeutic for something they have no control over.  The decision to green light the human trial for Arch rests entirely on the European regulatory agency and somehow Arch is being blamed for the “delay”.  All the facts and assumptions regarding my buying $ARTH is still intact so why should I be worry about other weak hands unloading their shares ’cause they started to have “doubt” over the delay?

Remember, as Warren Buffett says, focus on “what will happen” not “when it will happen”.  So, current price action is merely the reflection of nervous and weak hands and may have nothing to do with the integrity of the Arch Therapeutic’s AC5 product that is still waiting for human trial to start.

I believe in the AC5 product and is going to wait for the human trail to start. All current price actions are all noises and will be ignored by me.  This is a long-term fundamental play and current price actions means nothing to me since I’m NOT swing-trading or daytrading it.

As a reminder from my November 20th post, waiting for “what will happen” will have its own reward when the “what will happen” finally happened.  Price can rebound hard and fast without warning.  The below $PACB weekly chart is just one of the many examples of a stock that was badly beaten by doubters but recovered strongly when the “what will happen” comes into fruition.

pacb_weekly

Patience has its reward and is never easy.

So far, my port is recovering nicely as well.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, IBIO, BIOC, AKAO   Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents.

From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)

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Categories: Daily trading Journal, trading journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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