Weekly thought on $DMRC, $IBIO, $BIOC, $AKAO, $ARTH

Just like that, three weeks worth of rally just evaporated back into thin air thanks to the bear’s persistent resolve.  But the bull still has the 79 MA as support. The 89 MA is directly below to act as a backup if called upon.

SPY_Weekly

Giving December is only half-month away, the prospect of rising interest rate will need to be “absorbed” into the system before price can rally again.  Like pulling a bandage, we don’t want to face that pain even though we all know it would be a short & quick one.  I believe once the minuscule increase in rate is executed, the market will react a bit and then rally hard afterward.  But that’s just my dimestore economic theory. It is important that the bull fight back next week to pause the bear momentum.

$DMRC‘s weekly bar is holding its ground following last week solid green bar.  The green spinning top bar this week is most likely to be a “pausing” bar since the momentum indicators below are still at the bottom half.  As time approaches the end-of-the-year, the January 2016 National Retail Big Show begins to appear closer.  Who is sharing the booth with Digimarc? Last year, it was Wegmans, will there be a big retailer coming forth to show support for the Digimarc solution?  After all, the Digimarc booth is going to be 3x larger than last year booth.  There is a lot to look forward to.

I’m currently reading “The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor” by Howard Marks, Paul Johnson, Bruce C. Greenwald. While I’m still reading it, one quote that jumped at me is this one:

“Like so many other things described in this book, there’s no simple solution: no formula that will tell you when the market has gone to an irrational extreme, no foolproof tool that will keep you on the right side of these decisions, no magic pill that will protect you against destructive emotions. As Charlie Munger says, ‘It’s not supposed to be easy.’

What weapons might you marshal on your side to increase your odds? Here are the ones that work for Oaktree:

• a strongly held sense of intrinsic value,

Source: The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor (Location 2266 of 4396 or 52% mark- Kindle version)

While I may be guilty of picking quote that befits my stock selections, this quote echoes exactly my own thought regarding the “intrinsic value” of Digimarc. While a lot of this intrinsic value hinges on the future adoption of Digimarc solution, it is nevertheless, the ultimate risk investors are bearing for this long trade.  Meanwhile, knowing that the technologies are being tested by five big retailers (one more than previous quarter) help to alleviate the risk somewhat,  Another factor that help me to gauge my risk factor is my vision of the future.  Yes, my vision could be wrong but it is still my vision of where the retailers’ world is going that I’m making a large bet on Digimarc.

DMRC_weekly

The overall trend since the late 2013 to now is still on an uptrend.  The likelihood of a bounce is better than 50/50 is my take of it.

$IBIO has another weekly doji bar near the support at $0.65.  With momentum indicators still at the bottom part of the range, the possibility of a bounce is increasing.  Fundamentally speaking, I bought $IBIO for the coming Phase I trial in the 1st quarter of 2016 to test their IBIO-CFB03 product against the Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), systemic sclerosis, and other fibrotic diseases.  My sense of the intrinsic value for this stock comes from my confidence in Dr. Bostwick’s enthusiastic discovery of IBIO-CFB03.  If it works on human skin, half the battle is won already is my take of it.

IBIO_weekly

Price is holding steady a long-term uptrend direction since the low from early 2015.  Any news regarding the coming Phase I trial may kick off a bounce from here.

$BIOC gave back last week gain with a weekly red-bar. Price found support at the uptrend line since February of this year.  Apparently, this stock has a lot of short-sellers using the old swan song of “dilution coming” to scare away buyers and to shake the shares off the long investors.  I ventured to add that part of the short-sellers come from the $TROV fan who really want $BIOC to fail so $TROV can succeed without the competition.  After all, TrovaGene market cap is 4x larger than Biocept and yet has less revenues.  Furthermore, Biocept has made a lot more inroad with medical insurers than TrovaGene.  So, for survival purpose, short-sellers want Biocept investors to abandon ship and jump over to the TrovaGene ship.  No way I’m doing that.

Another wisdom from Howard Marks mentioned above is that your risk is a lot less if you buy the stock when nobody wants it as opposed to buying it when everyone wants it.  TrovaGene stock price had been chased much higher and despite recent correction is still 4x larger than Biocept in market cap size even though revenue is lower.  Using my interpretation of Howard Marks risk factor, Biocept offers a lower risk liquid biopsy play at current price level.  The dilution angle has been overblown by the short-sellers as far as I’m concerned.  Biocept has enough cash to last thru the 2nd half of 2016 and a lot of new positive developments can happen in a quarter (3 months) in a biotech world.  Coming catalysts for Biocept are:

  • announcement of Blue Cross coverage
  • announcement of the availability of Prostrate assay for cancer test
  • announcement of PDL-1 test

All three provides immediate uptake on revenues due to more coverage by insurers for popular cancer tests.

BIOC_weekly

So far, the long-term uptrend line is still holding.

$AKAO tried to bounce but failed at the end.  This is now a roll-the-dice on the Phase 3 top line result that is soon to be released.  I’ve peeled off a big chunk of my original size to bare-bone position so that even if the trial is not positive enough, I’ll only have negligible damage. The recent resignation of the Senior VP/CFO to spend more time with family was another factor that subconsciously affected my mind to peel more off to buy more Biocept instead.  It could be nothing but I went with how information changed my direction.

AKAO_weekly

At this point, the chart doesn’t mean anything ’cause the real catalyst that moves price is the Phase 3 top line result.

$ARTH closed the week slightly better but the important part is that the downdraft has been halted for now.  This is still a waiting game.

ARTH_weekly

Notice that the stochastic momentum indicator below is bottoming out and is about to head back up.  Does this foretell a human trial is about to begin?  Who know!  Nevertheless, I’m committed to waiting this one out.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, IBIO, BIOC, AKAO  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)

Maple Leaves 2



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: