Tuesday thought on $DMRC, $IBIO, $BIOC, $AKAO, $ARTH

Well, the bear was stopped and a bounce is happening. The bull is going to pick up the pace again and run for the hill. And so it goes. I guess we will have to see about that!

SPY_Daily

Looking good here with price closing above the 15 MA in a green bar.

$DMRC is consolidating around the $25 mark. Something about the event driven stock is that time is never at standstill. At time passes, something is developing and growing.  The proof-of-concept tests are progressing among the four large retailers.  Probably some “ooohhs” and “aaahhhhs” were being uttered along the way.

Imagine the following scenario:

“Hey, check it out!”  one tester threw a box of cereal in mid-air to another tester preparing to catch it.  The box flew pass the scanner gun which read the Digimarc barcode and triggered a video commercial of the breakfast cereal.  “Cool!”

Where are they on the testing?  How much longer?  While we do not know what is behind the curtain, we do know that time is moving and every day we are closer to the event.  One day we WILL wake up to breaking news and I’m betting that it’s all good.

$IBIO is back to the support after an attempt to jump across the fences (79 & 89 MAs).  I’m excited about the coming Phase I trial where patients with fibrosis are giving the opportunity to try it as well.  Below are excerpts from the September 2015 Life Sciences interview:

TLSR: Where is your fibrosis candidate now in terms of development, and what are the next milestones?

BE: IBIO-CFB03 is in late preclinical development for fibrosis. We’re developing the investigational new drug (IND) package now and are conducting toxicology studies and doing some of the necessary process validation work. We expect to start our first Phase 1 clinical trial in Q1/16. We plan to take this candidate at least through Phase 1 on our own.

Our work is done in collaboration with the Medical University of South Carolina. Caliber Biotherapeutics LLC (private), in Texas, is our manufacturing partner, and we’re also working with a private California biotech company called Novici Biotech LLC on some of the product variant work.

Initially IBIO-CFB03 will be a single product candidate, but it’s in a family that may lead to multiple products or formulations to treat various fibrotic diseases. A strategic milestone will be to define the opportunity as either a single product treating a single fibrotic disease, or as a portfolio of at least two products for more than one indication.

To better define the opportunity, we are continuing with traditional product development and working through the IND process and clinical trials. Simultaneously, we’re conducting basic and animal research with variant candidates that may broaden our reach into additional types of fibrotic diseases.

………..

TLSR: What should investors expect from iBio in the coming year?

BE: We plan to start the fibrosis clinical trial in early 2016, and expect positive news from that. Phase 1 is heavily oriented to safety, but we expect to start with a healthy volunteer cohort, followed by patients in a second cohort, so we may see indications of efficacy via surrogate endpoints even in Phase 1. Entering into the clinic will increase our visibility and, we believe, also increase our value.

I also expect to announce additional partnering agreements. These probably will be small, but some could have fairly exciting products tied to them. Those deals won’t pay off financially to a significant degree in the next year, but could set the stage for a better market understanding of the value of our technology platform.

We also have a small subsidiary in Brazil that is actively marketing our technology and product opportunities to the private sector and to multiple government agencies. iBio’s Brazilian subsidiary, through the alliance with Bio-Manguinhos, accounts for most of the revenue on our income statement. It’s very hard to predict timelines there, given Brazilian politics, but I’m very optimistic about that market in the long run. Brazil could be a source of good news in 2016.

We’re also actively engaged in a business development alliance with Kanematsu Chemicals Corp. in Japan, which has the potential to lead to further activities in that country. If we do anything in Asia, it will likely be with Japan first.

Thus, “we may see indications of efficacy via surrogate endpoints even in Phase 1”.  If efficacy is proven and patients recovered from the Phase I trial, watch out for the mother-of-all blast-off.

$BIOC tripped over a banana and fell down a flight of stairs.  Seeing such low price even after positive progress, I sold more $AKAO to buy more Biocept to take advantage of today fire-sales price.  Since I’ve been selling off $AKAO recently, it is now a bare bone position. Knowing the “company remains on track to open clinical sites in Q4 2015 with top-line results” soon, I began to get cold feet on placing too large a bet on this one. For some reason, I saw a roulette wheel spinning every times I checked on $AKAO.  Thus, peeling off $AKAO and buying more $BIOC at at this lower price looked more attractive and “safer”.

Meanwhile, $ARTH is floating on the $0.20 level waiting for human trial.

Current holdings:

Main Port: DMRC, IBIO, BIOC, AKAO  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)

Maple leave



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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