Thursday thought on $DMRC, $IBIO, $BIOC, $AKAO, $ARTH

I’m not so sure about today red spinning bar, especially when it is meandering around the resistance line.  The saving grace is that price still closed above the 5 MA line.  It could as well be another pausing bar before the next leg up; but be prepared for a bit more correction if the 5 MA is taking out to the downside.

SPY_Daily

Overall trend is still very bullish; no question about that; but no quarter must be given to the bear at this point.

$DMRC corrected a bit more. At this point, this is a waiting game for me. Whatever the short-sellers try to do is none of my business since I’m not selling a single shares based on their manipulation and tricks.  Even if price rallied to $50 after the earning update, I’m not selling my shares either.  So what does it matter if short-sellers forced it down to $24?  If they have not covered yet; even better.  I’m betting on the adoption and that is all there is.  Everything else is just noise.  In two years price could be significantly higher from here if I’m right about the adoption   The world is changing and I just don’t see how the brick & mortar retailers can advance further without the Digimarc barcode.

Just imagine the future where shopping carts in the stores are all intelligent machines.  When you place an item in the cart, the smart cart will automatically add the item to the checkout list thanks to Digimarc barcode.  And when you pull an item out of the cart, the smart cart will know too and delete the item from the checkout list.  And when you are done shopping, you push the smart cart to the checkout area and is immediately present with a total cost in your mobile phone.  You click accept to pay, unload the content of the shopping cart to your bag and you are on the way.

“Wait! Don’t you have to wait for your turn?”

There is no waiting since the smart cart has already completed the checkout list that was formally handled by the checkout clerk of the past. When your cart comes near the checkout center, the checkout center automatically receives the info from the smart cart by wireless connection and route the total to the payment process which in turn send the final tally to your mobile phone for payment approval.

This is the ultimate fast checkout shopping in the future of retail operation from my vision.  And this can only be done with the use of technology like the Digimarc invisible barcode.  Again, the world is changing and technology like the Digimarc invisible watermark cannot be ignored ’cause the benefit of having it is just too great for the future of retailers to miss it.

Therefore, I don’t care about the stupid game the short-sellers are throwing at us (long investors) with the manipulation of the stock price.  In fact, if they continue to throw good money after bad by jacking up the short-interest even more trying to push price further down, I’ll be looking for fund to buy more.  Eventually, all the short-sellers are doing is to give the investors with long-term perspective of the stock to buy more cheap shares.  In another words, the short-sellers are donating their effort to help the long investors to buy cheap shares.  And when good news come that all major retailers are adopting the Digimarc solution, the new longs and old longs will be fighting to buy more shares along with the short-sellers trying to cover.  Good luck with that.

DMRC_daily

The chart above really doesn’t mean anything at this point.  Of course, the short-sellers will want you to be fearful about breaking the support.  Nope, the chart only reflects the action of the manipulation and nothing more.  It bears no relationship to the fundamental development of the Digimarc’s infrastructure.  As long as Digimarc continues on its infrastructure development, I’m holding my shares.

$IBIO dropped back a bit due to the overhead 79 & 89 resistance.  It may take a few more times before it can break out to the upside.  The Phase I fibrosis trial is supposed to start in the 1st quarter of 2016 and I bought shares when nobody wanted it now.  So, this is another waiting game.

IBIO_daily

Let’s see if there is another attempt to rally from here.

$BIOC closed higher today before the earnings update.  The key positives I got out of the earning update are the following:

  1. Biomarker assay for Prostrate cancer will be available by end of 2015
  2. Blue Cross is on board covering the cost of the liquid biopsy performed by Biocept.

I’m sure there are other good points but the above key points are good enough for me to hold this one for long-term regardless of the stupid game short-sellers are going to throw at it.  If Biocept can come up with another 93% or higher concordance with tissue biopsy on the prostrate biomarker, this company will stand to make a lot of money.  I believe 2016 will be a breakout year for Biocept.  For now, I’ll just hold on to my shares.  Oh btw, I peeled off more $AKAO this morning to buy more $BIOC due to the news this morning regarding the extremely high sensitivity of Biocept’s Blood-Based Liquid Biopsy Platform in Detecting EGFR Mutation in Plasma with 93% Concordance with Tissue Biopsy.  This is now a no brainer buy and hold.

BIOC_daily

Notice that $BIOC broke out of the downtrend line today as well as the 79 & 89 resistance.  It will be nice to see it stays above these resistance tomorrow.  But then, it doesn’t really matter what it does on the chart.  I’m holding regardless of what the chart says.

$AKAO was down today probably due to some nervous holders getting out before earnings.  However, I like what I read below from the news:

“The company remains on track to open clinical sites in Q4 2015 with top-line results and an NDA submission expected in the second half of 2017.

‘I’m pleased with the progress made during the quarter to expedite plazomicin’s path to market. Implementing the EPIC study is an exciting development for Achaogen as it will support plazomicin therapy in the substantial patient population with MDR cUTI, who are currently underserved, and will underpin the Company’s plan for an NDA and subsequent commercialization in the U.S. and other markets,’ commented Dr. Kenneth Hillan, Achaogen’s Chief Executive Officer.”

The above tells me that we are about to see some action regarding the top-line result from opening the clinical sites in Q4 2015.  Well, we are in Q4 2015 now; so we may hear something soon.  While I’ve peeled off a chunk of $AKAO from my original large size (it used to be my 2nd largest position); I’m now quite comfortable with the shares I’ve now for the big “gamble” regarding the top-line result.

AKAO_daily

Again, the chart above doesn’t mean anything ’cause the top-line result is the KEY catalyst, not the chart.

$ARTH dropped back down a bit due to some impatient investors getting tired of waiting.  But I’m patient, so I’m holding and waiting.

By now, you know that all my positions are basically a waiting game for the fundamental story to develop.  And my investment style has evolved into a buy and hold on the most promising technologies from my perspective.  Before my evolution to buy and hold, I used to swing-trade a lot and that was the reason I posted my charts daily.  Charts are very helpful in telling you what everyone is doing.  Are there more sellers than buyers?  What is the volume?  On top of that, popular chart-patterns sometimes give you an “edge” but you still need to have a strong discipline to follow a good trading strategy to take advantage of the chart patterns.  After so many years of timing the market with some successes, I realize the BIG money is not in timing the market but on finding the new breakout technologies that can change the world we live in for the better.

Sure, I’m a late bloomer to realize this simple strategy when a lot of people have already grown wealthy holding on to MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, FB, PCLN, etc. from the time of the IPOs.  But it is NEVER too late to learn new thing and change for the better. Remember, buy and hold is only a PART of the successful buy and hold strategy, the other KEY element of successful buy and hold strategy is finding the RIGHT stocks to hold.  It is my 2 cents that I’ve found what I believed to be the companies that have the potential to change the world for the better as my candidates (albeit high-beta) for my risky buy and hold strategy. It has taken me many years of trading to come to this point and settle into these stocks for my ultimate bet.

After some shifting of my positions around lately, I’ve finally created a portfolio of stocks with the proper allocation that I’m comfortable with.  Now, the real game begins.  For my buy-and-hold thesis, charts don’t mean anything anymore since I’m not trying to time the market.  Thus, whatever the short-sellers try to do now is their business and will have no effect on me.  The only effect will be when the fundamental story does not move in the direction of what I’ve expected.  But the company has to be the one to tell me that, not the manipulative action of short-sellers.

Current holdings:

Main cash port: DMRC, IBIO, BIOC, AKAO  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)

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Categories: Daily trading Journal

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3 replies

  1. Ballie Gifford takes stake in DMRC…not huge but the fact a 40B fund that invests for decades is buy into DMRC is nice to see…especially when their motto is “Baillie Gifford. Investment marathon runners”

    • Thanks for the info, Joe. It’s good to know quality investor like Ballie Gifford is on board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more quality names appearing due to the recent short-sellers induced low price. As I mentioned before, there were lot of buying going on despite falling prices.

      • also…have you looked at datalogic’s stock performance recently/…sure looks like biz is good and upgrade cycle ahead…also found its px’s correlation to DMRC is intriguing.. definitely got going on same day ceo instagram post…

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