Monday thought on $DMRC, $BIOC, $AMRN

Way to go!  Today rally confirmed last week spinning top weekly bar as a resting bar instead of a topping formation bar.

SPY_Daily

Price is now within a stone throw from the downtrend line that started from June of this year.  A breakout of that downtrend line to the upside will bring the bull back to 100% bull territory.  Based on current momentum, my take is that the probability of making a new high before year-end is better than 50/50.

$DMRC bounced off the long-term uptrend support line today.  I wish I have more fund to add to my already over-weighted position size.  The long lost “a” battle to the bear last week, but there are many more battles to fight as Digimarc continues to build out its infrastructure.  Despite last week setback, the war is far from over.  This is not about a war b/w Digimarc and the short-sellers, this is a war b/w the brick & mortar retailers and the online behemoths such as Amazon.com, ebay.com, Alibaba, etc.. To even the playing field, brick & mortar retailers need to take efficiency to the next level (Walmart’s motto: fast and easy) so that consumers will prefer the convenience of shopping from their nearby brick & mortar retailers than on online.  Don’t you get tired of waiting for UPS or USPS?  To get there, new technologies must be tested and utilized.  And I believe that Digimarc offers an ideal technology for the brick & mortar retailers to build a gateway to bring the consumers back to its stores.

Meanwhile, to build a strong case for moving forward with the technological improvement, proof-of-concept testing period is required in order to validate the promise of efficiency. And once validated, groundwork/blueprint needs to be prepared for the restructuring of the brick & mortar retail operation to accommodate the new technologies.  Needless to say, this process is time-consuming. Unfortunately, while waiting, the dynamic of the stock price is subjected to the stronger of the buying or selling force.

But the “waiting” is only a temporary condition that will eventually give way to the actual implementation of the new technologies that brick & mortar retailers desperately needed to win consumers back.  It is my opinion that the Digimarc solution offers a bridge for the brick & mortar retailers to reach out to the consumers the way online shoppers are doing now.  By doing so, it even the playing field and yet offer the advantage of having a nearby stores for consumers to come by and pick up the merchandises “fast and easy”.

In summary, the short-sellers (aka non-believers) may have won the battle, but it’s going to lose the war.  In another manner of speaking, the brick & mortar retailers are preparing for a D-day invasion against the online behemoths.  Can you imagine this war without the Digimarc solution being part of the brick & mortar arsenal?

I’m more excited for the future despite the temporary setback.

DMRC_daily

Right on cue, price bounced off the uptrend line.  With a huge short-interest in place, any news of upcoming war effort can easily rip price skyward as quick as last week momentum.

$AKAO made a slight move upward while $IBIO corrected a bit more; both did not move enough to change the current chart status, so I won’t pull up charts.

Meanwhile, $BIOC did great today with a solid bounce.

BIOC_daily

Price is now within easy reach to get above the 79 & 89 resistances. All eyes are on the coming earnings update on Nov. 5th.

$AMRN also bounced nicely which moved price further away from support.

AMRN_daily

Earning update this Wednesday will shed more light on the ongoing FDA settlement.  Any positive progress can restore price back to $2.5x and higher.

$ARTH continued to hold its ground above $0.20 while waiting on news of human trial.

My port gained back some today.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, AKAO, IBIO, BIOC, AMRN   Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera (click on photo to see image at 100%)

Friday afternoon 070



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , ,

5 replies

  1. great article and photo. I’m back after being shaken by the bear. Wobbly but still standing!!

    I agree with your assessment of the conf call from the other day. What I heard was momentum building.

    1. backlog of packages to be enabled (backlog should be exactly what Wall st wants to hear)
    2. Hiring staff across the spectrum – sales/marketing/dev/prof svcs
    3. SGS online to help work off backlog
    4. Reiterate major scanner vendors will be enabled by the NRF trade show in January
    5. Well financed with a major new investor
    6. From 2 retailers testing to 4 (total 5 retailers including Wegman’s enabling packages)

    This tells me momentum is building AND they are under capacity (couldn’t support a large deal if one were to close). The SGS note is critical for that scaling (along with hiring)

    A tidbit of evidence for further conviction.

    One scanner vendor has been up and running leveraging dmrc technology. Datalogic. We saw the article in August showing they had reportedly a large deal with Rewe Group to install in all their stores.

    Well Datalogic’s last 2 quarters have shown excellent growth. To the extent the pps is up 75% for the year. Link to quote below.

    https://www.google.com/finance?q=BIT%3ADAL&ei=T1c4Vvm_MYWwmAH2v5mABA

    I believe the sales numbers are juiced by fx and likewise the pps too… but there is strong currency independent growth.

    Two recent links to earnings PRs. Key to note is that sales growth is being driven by their retail scanner division. Also, recall back to Jan 2015, when an analyst wrote that as they toured the NRF trade show it appeared as though there were two dmrc booths. dmrc’s AND Datalogic’s. Datalogic’s play at the biggest retail trade show in the US last year was a play on new technology in their imaging based scanners, and dmrc is a big part of that.

    Finally, and somewhat redundant, one of the biggest impediments to a deal for DMRC is getting compatible scanners installed. Datalogic’s success of 2015 is a great indication of what is to come when other vendors come online by Jan 2016 at NRF. They are getting the scale of SGS coming online to allow for ramp.

    http://www.datalogic.com/eng/media-center/news/preliminary-sales-revenues-up-by-16-7-to-135.2-million-euro-in-q2-2015-compared-to-115.8-million-euro-in-q2-2014-nd-4109.html

    http://www.datalogic.com/eng/investor-relations/news/preliminary-sales-revenues-up-by-15.3-to-133.8-million-eu-fnd-4152.html

  2. Hi Zen:

    As usual, great article and photo.

    I’m back after being shaken by the bear. Wobbly but still standing!!

    I agree with your assessment of the conf call from the other day. What I heard was momentum building.

    1. backlog of packages to be enabled (backlog should be exactly what Wall st wants to hear)
    2. Hiring staff across the spectrum – sales/marketing/dev/prof svcs
    3. SGS online to help work off backlog
    4. Reiterate major scanner vendors will be enabled by the NRF trade show in January
    5. Well financed with a major new investor
    6. From 2 retailers testing to 4 (total 5 retailers including Wegman’s enabling packages)

    This tells me momentum is building AND they are under capacity (couldn’t support a large deal if one were to close). The SGS note is critical for that scaling (along with hiring)

    • A tidbit of evidence for further conviction.

      One scanner vendor has been up and running leveraging dmrc technology. Datalogic. We saw the article in August showing they had reportedly a large deal with Rewe Group to install in all their stores.

      Well Datalogic’s last 2 quarters have shown excellent growth. To the extent the pps is up 75% for the year.

      I tried to post links and longer details but the net is their last two quarters have been driven by strength in their retail scanner division.

      Also, recall back to Jan 2015, when an analyst wrote that as they toured the NRF trade show it appeared as though there were two dmrc booths. dmrc’s AND Datalogic’s. Datalogic’s play at the biggest retail trade show in the US last year was a play on new technology in their imaging based scanners, and dmrc is a big part of that.

      Finally, and somewhat redundant, one of the biggest impediments to a deal for DMRC is getting compatible scanners installed. Datalogic’s success of 2015 is a great indication of what is to come when other vendors come online by Jan 2016 at NRF.

      They are getting the scale of SGS coming online to allow for ramp just in time.

  3. Hey ValueInv, thanks for the add’l info. Cheers!

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