Weekly thought on $DMRC, $AKAO, $IBIO, $ONCY, $AMRN, $BIOC, $ARTH

It was a battle week and the bull won at the end. The week kicked off with another doji bar on Monday; neither the bull nor the bear won the day. Then the bear pulled a fast one Tuesday morning with a gap down but the bull fought back and even made new high during the day.  But the bear would have none of it, it used its backup energy reserve to push the bull back down and won the day  Wednesday was a make-or-break day for the bear so it threw everything it had to keep the downward momentum going.  It succeeded but was exhausted from the campaign.  The bull knew the bear was on its last leg and staged a surprise attack on Thursday that threw the bear off so completely that it was unprepared to defend itself.  The bear lost all territories gained for the week and failed to recover on Friday after a half-hearted attempt.

SPY_Weekly

The bull has not only succeeded in climbing back above the weekly 79 & 89 MA and regained them as support, it also climbed above the daily 79 & 89 MAs as well on Friday..  Together with price being above all four MAs (5, 15, 79 & 89), there is a good odd of a continuing uptrend next week.

$DMRC had a solid up week confirming last week bullish engulfment candlestick bar as a highly probable bottom-formation pattern. The Walmart 22nd annual investors meeting summarized Walmart’s commitment to invest in technology to bring “fast and easy” shopping experience to customers when they shop in stores, online, mobile, or a combination of them.  While Digimarc was not mentioned at the meeting, I can’t help but “concluded” that Digimarc invisible watermark technology is highly likely to be adopted by Walmart in its quest for new technology to make everything “fast and easy”.  Don’t forget the fact that the Digimarc invisible watermark can contain more than just the barcode information.  Due to its invisible nature, Walmart or any retailers adopting this technology can add additional information besides the barcode for their own purpose to increase efficiency without clustering the packaging design.  The original presentation of barcode (in the rectangular white strip containing multiple black lines) has reached its end of long life cycle and must make way to new technology that allows a more direct “fast and easy” interface with the stores’ scanners as well as mobile phones currently proliferating globally. But despite my positive outlook on $DMRC, until the fat lady sings, I can only speculate on the increased possibility of adoption and invest according to my personal risk profile.  I’d put my chips down and is now waiting for the sound of sweet voice to fill my ears (with my fingers crossed for good luck, of course).

DMRC_weekly

Based on the upward momentum of the last two weeks, I say more and more people are betting that the fat lady will sing soon enough.  The next resistance to take out is the $40.20 mark.

$AKAO did not do too well this week.  It was struggling to recover from the bio-tech sell-off; but eventual catalyst is the trial result of its negative gram antibiotic medicine.

AKAO_weekly

Let’s see if price can bounce off the support at $5.30.

$IBIO had an up week with a green spinning top bar.  The fact price spiked up this week was what got me back into this speculative biotech stock.  There are evidences that the ebola virus doesn’t just go away when the victims were supposedly cured months ago. While I don’t see an outbreak to happen anytime soon (which I hope not); I believe $IBIO has a vaccine technology (utilizing plants instead of animal organ or raw egg) that is much needed in our current time of unpredictable virus attacks.  I’m adding this to my long-term hold.

IBIO_weekly

This week green up bar came after last week doji bar.  I’m seeing a possibility of a bottom-formation here.  However, it needs to get over the overhead 79 & 89 MAs resistance.

$ONCY had a slightly lower red inside bar from last week doji bar.  This is an extension of uncertainty but is still better than another big down week.

ONCY_weekly

The possible looming of Nasdaq delisting is hanging over $ONCY head and it would be interesting to see what the company next act will be like.  During the week, I reduced shares of $ONCY (at losses) to raise cash to buy $IBIO.  So some of the delisting exposure had been transferred out.

$AMRN had another down week which was probably suffering the same biotech fallout as $AKAO.  But what got me to unload more $AMRN to buy more $DMRC and $IBIO was that the weekly script# did not increase by leaps and bounds as I’d hoped.  It is now stuck at 14,xxx since it went there four weeks ago.  Not that I don’t believe in $AMRN anymore, I still do; it is that I see the probability of upward momentum is “better” in $DMRC and $IBIO comparing to $AMRN.  I’m simply allocating my resources to the battlegrounds I feel have the better odd of winning in the near-term.

AMRN_weekly

Price needs to get back above $2 soon to avoid getting stuck at the one-dollar land.

$BIOC did a good job maintaining a green bar amidst the fall-out from the biotech storm.

BIOC_weekly

Price needs to head higher to take out $2.74 to avoid confirming the bearish engulfment bar two weeks ago.

$ARTH finally had a bouncing week off its $0.25 support level which also happened to be the Fib 61.8% retracement support level as well.

ARTH_weekly

How well this bounce may continue will depend on update on the human trial.  You will never know when the news will hit the wire.  So, I’m holding my shares for the “eventual” announcement.

Overall, my port had another recovering week.  So far so good.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, AKAO, IBIO, ONCY, AMRN, BIOC   Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera (click on photo for enlarged version):

Enchanted flowers



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , , , ,

5 replies

  1. Oleander. Based on the plants you share I guess you live in south Florida maybe Sarasota or Ft Lauderdale

    • You may be right about the Oleander; but wrong on your guessing. I’ll keep it simple by neither confirming nor denying future guessing. I appreciate your response nevertheless.

      Cheers!

  2. thanks for the article. I like your pre thought out / know your limits approach.

    A direct question. I’m looking for good counter arguments 🙂

    Kind of went crazy this past weekend posting on your other article. sorry for that 🙂

    Digimarc’s booth at the trade show last week showed a very large Great Value Wavy Chip display. There was not another display nearly as large in the booth. It sort of stuck out like a sore thumb. What are reasonable explanations for that sort of ‘gawdy’ display being leveraged for sales/marketing activity?

    Multiple Choice:

    1. Digimarc stole the display from a local Walmart and was using it without permission.

    2. WMT had run out of room at their booth and asked Digimarc to display it to fill some of their vacant space

    3. WMT & DMRC have some level of marketing agreement that allows DMRC to use WMT’s brand as marketing material

    4. None of the above

    I really do believe the answer is 3. And I’ve thought hard about under what set of conditions would a NON customer allow a 3rd party to use their brand to market in this way. Clearly Walmart is not really needing the publicity / marketing exposure that microcap DMRC would provide. Without a serious / committed agreement being in place I cannot imagine Walmart taking on the risk of such a display.

    The combo of the events of the year lead me to only 1 conclusion. Walmart is moving forward. Its not to say the deal couldn’t sour or Walmart couldn’t de-commit, but that’s akin to ‘losing’ a customer you already have versus winning one you do not. I think the victory (for wmt) has been won.

    Look forward to your response.

    value

    • Value investor, I see you have a strong conviction (as much as I do if not more) based on circumstantial evidences that Digimarc and Walmart will have a deal. As I’ve discussed in my post, until the fat lady sings, our conviction will be one of the personal factor in deciding how much risk capital to allocate to $DMRC. Even if the rest of the market ain’t seeing eye-to-eye with you at the moment, current price can be considered as opportunity to augment to your portfolio.

      Let’s be patient and wait for the fat lady to sing. After all, with our conviction, it affords us a stress free and peaceful mentality while waiting for the final verdict.

      Cheers!

    • 🙂

      I’ll humor you 🙂 The fat lady sings when _____________. ?

      Its possible we don’t ever get a PR from a walmart deal.

      Therefore I guess, my thought would the fat lady will sing when we see the 1st private label product hit the walmart shelves. That’s fair enough.

      I believe its unprecedented for a ‘prospect’ to lend their brand to a product they are being solicited to buy (but haven’t yet bought). Especially a brand as widely known as Walmart/home depot/lowest/etc…

      look forward to the next article.

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