Thursday thought on $DMRC, $AKAO, $IBIO, $ONCY, $AMRN, $BIOC, $ARTH

Out of nowhere, the bull gave the bear a knock-out punch and hightailed out of town.  Another up day and price will be above the 79 & 89 MA resistances.

SPY_Daily

From the look of the chart, percentage is high that an upward momentum will continue.

$DMRC continued on its ninth up day since it bounced from below $30 back in early October. After the Walmart 22nd annual investors meeting yesterday, I erased all doubt regarding the adoption of the Digimarc barcode.  Walmart is practically speaking on the megaphone that the retail industry MUST change quickly to align itself to the technology development of the social media.  To stay competitive, the retailers MUST tap directly to the consumers’ mindset by utilizing technology to link the product to the social media network.  What better way than turning the whole packaging of the product item into a “clickable” exercise for the curious prospective buyer?

“I wonder if this will work…”  

The customer pulled up the mobile phone and pointed to the item and “click”.  The App quickly located relevant information regarding the item being “clicked” on.

The customer found the relevant information within seconds.

“Ahhh…. Yeap, it will certainly do!”

When you package a product so that customer can simply point the mobile phone and click for info without having to touch the item (as in looking for the conventional UPC barcode), you create a “fast and easy” environment (path of least resistance) for the customer to “click” for more information and therefore improve the chance of the customer buying the product on the spot instead of walking away due to lack of information.

I still couldn’t believe I’ve an opportunity to own a piece of the company that owns a patent for an invisible watermark that may become the worldwide standard for product packaging.  And the company operation is still on the ground floor   It reminded me of Amazon, an online bookseller at the time, after IPO.  Price was trading in the $30ish then.  No, I didn’t realize Amazon would become where it is now back then.  I thought you could only sell so many books, little did I know.  Now, I’m given a second chance to make it right. In fact, missing Amazon is a lesson for me so that I won’t miss the $DMRC train.

DMRC_daily

One more up day and price will be above the 79 MA.  For the long folks, hold on to your shares and don’t let them shorts steal them.  And to the short folks, try not to get trampled on your way out of Dodge.

Today, I got back into $IBIO, a biotech that has the technology to accelerate vaccine production using plants.  Last October, the Ebola breakout drove $IBIO from under a dollar to $3.50 in a matter of days.  Recently, news began to surface again on Ebola cases. A nurse that was “cured” of Ebola about a year ago is now sick again. See news here.   This is October again and I wonder if there is a seasonal occurrence in Ebola case.  $IBIO may hold a key to mass production of vaccine if there’s ever a need for it. Hopefully, we won’t need it.

IBIO_daily

On the charting front, price has been climbing gradually for the last two weeks and today spike was the catalyst that got me back into the stock.  I sold some $AMRN and $ONCY to buy $IBIO.

$AMRN bounced some today but still underneath the uptrend line. Tomorrow we will find out if script numbers are tracking higher

AMRN_daily

Recent disappointed performance made it easy for me to unload shares to buy more $DMRC and initiate position on $IBIO.  Even if $AMRN goes up with my lesser number of shares, I won’t miss much as long as $DMRC and $IBIO also track higher.  The important matter is that my total portfolio value goes up.

$ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH were basically neutral for the day despite small movements.  $AKAO were up a bit but not enough to pull up a chart.

My port continued to gain back ground.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, AKAO, IBIO, ONCY, AMRN, BIOC   Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents.

From my camera (click on photo for enlarged version):

Purple Flower



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , , , ,

4 replies

  1. another good post/thx!

    I like the introspective view – esp of our commonly held $dmrc position. Each and every day we need to validate our thesis against any new found facts or even the absence of facts we perhaps assumed were present.

    I often find myself wanting to be convinced by tangible evidence. One day i’m convinced and then time elapses without much word and then I become somewhat skeptical. With $DMRC there has been enough info flowing to keep me confident. Esp since 2015 began.

    While there are so many other stories… $WMT has garnered alot of the attention. And rightfully so. Working out an agreement for $WMT to enable their private label packaging in my opinion would equate to CEO Bruce’s oft mentioned tipping point. $WMT has such incredible influence as the #1 retailer in the world it would not be hard to see how their adoption could spur their supply chain and competitors to follow suit.

    In January we heard $WMT was testing out $DMRC technology in fliers (pilot in Austin, TX) – great news as the biggest retailer is aware of $DMRC and even kicking the tires actively.

    In April we heard of the invitation to the University of Arkansas conference in $WMTs backyard.. an event heavily sponsored and controlled by $WMT themselves.

    In June we heard of the presentation done by $DMRC. How it included a real Great Value product and packaging. And in late June we saw an actual instagram post by the CEO of $WMT touting the potential of this technology with the same product (Wavy Chips).

    While other events unfolded, there was sort of a $WMT lull. Now 4 months have passed and we got a readout of $WMTs direction at their annual investor conference. Definite hints of how $DMRC could indeed fit into their future plans.

    BUT, occurring at the same time at a large retail trade show. The Shopper Marketing Expo, which $DMRC states on their web site as being “…the world’s largest gathering of shopper and retail marketing professionals.” At this largest gathering of shopper and retail professionals we get a picture that to me is hard evidence of the strong relationship between $WMT and $DMRC

    The link below via twitter shows the $DMRC booth at the trade show. Of course the trade show is about selling $DMRC’s story. Selling and marketing. Elements found in the booth would be related to those closely aligned to the $DMRC story. We saw partner $HPQ was also in the $DMRC booth. Likely Wegman’s sample packages…

    And also in the booth… proudly displayed. Is the Great Value stand containing $WMT’s private label Wavy Chips. $DMRC is leveraging $WMTs private label name to sell their story. Think of any large company with brand reputation. Think of Coke, Pepsi, Home Depot, Lowes…. you name a large company… Do you know of any who would lend their name to another company’s marketing presentation without VERY VERY careful consideration and EXTREMELY SERIOUS commitment? And remember this is a VENDOR relationship, $DMRC is selling to $WMT, not the other way around. Also, Walmart was not there controlling the message… This was $DMRC’s booth, with $DMRC reps selling the $DMRC story… and it had Great Value ($WMT’s) signature and stamp of approval.

    To this investor, its case closed on $WMT. And case closed on tipping point. We will hear details eventually and it now is a question of when and how fast. And then there’s all the other applications. Shazam and ScanLife. I’ve gone from bullish to uber bullish with the below twitter post.

    Love the posts and photography… thanks!

    • Hey Value Investor, thanks for providing a list of circumstantial evidences supporting that Digimarc is getting serious attention from Walmart. I believe we are very close to the tipping point per your mention.

      Cheers!

      • my view of this last piece is a little more than just ‘serous attention’.

        Walmart (in my opinion) is, in effect, handing their brand to Digimarc to use in actual marketing of the digimarc solution.

        Under what conditions would Walmart do this. Would they do it if they were only iffy on using the technology? If they had any serious reservations? Or any significant gaps in their testing yet to do?

        Would they do it if they were 60% or 70% or even 90% confident?

        As a large brand, it is often the case that even as a long time customer, I still might not allow you to use my logo/brand to market YOUR product. I don’t want just anyone using my logo to market THEIR product. That’s a different level of ‘cooperation’, right?

        In business, you have customers and then you have SPECIAL customers that are referral customers.

        A very small/select group. Maybe a little larger group that might let you use their logo to show you are their customer. This large display in the $DMRC booth at a pure sales/marketing show is what I would call a special customer situation.

        Completely my opinion, but this is NOT an everyday relationship between vendor and customer.. and not likely one to be made so public if it weren’t a very close and confident relationship.

        again, my opinion. I see it as a huge revalation,

      • One more thought and i do apologize for being a little irrationally exuberant .

        left out of my posts are the shorts.

        While the timeline of $WMT becoming more committed unfolded, the short interest more than doubled.

        In June there was even a hit piece (2 parts!) written by Street sweeper.

        It was shallow, backward looking and missed any sincere analysis on the product development and progress. BUT, i believe they are somewhat of an innocent bystander. This company is unique and honestly, tough to fully appreciate without some sincere DD.

        The shares ran to 45 (higher intraday) on the $WMT instagram… and i believe waited for a follow through announcement. The shorts doubled down.

        This post via trade show showing Wavy Chips is akin to seeing Wegman’s crackers in the booth. Its not highly publicized, but shows a clear commitment between $DMRC and $WMT. Of course, my opinion, see my replies above and below.

        The price has been crazy volatile this past week. Friday was crazy volatile. This equity doesn’t have a huge following (YET). Its easy to push the price around a bit. Friday to me was indicative of what’s to come. And again, in this investor’s humble opinion, its over. At least as far as $WMT is concerned and at least as far as a tipping point moving into 2016.

        Shorts will take pps pressure to realize it. And they’ll fight it (good!!!) I think sustained in the mid 40s could be enough. But then look out… akin to yelling fire in a theatre… it will only be pretty for the longs.

        thx

        value

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