Weekly thought on $DMRC, $AMRN, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

What’s a roller-coaster week!  Monday kicked off a persistent dive that investors were wondering if there would ever be an end to the madness. What a relief when a doji was formed on Tuesday. The bull took advantage of the bear exhaustion and began to push back.  The bull attack was successful and Wednesday closed higher which further confirmed the power of the doji bar.  Thursday, the bear tried to regain momentum but did not have enough mojo to fend off the bull late rally counter-attack.  On Friday, the bear made a tactical move by using all its reserved energy to force a hair-raising gap-down hoping to spark a panic for further selling.  But the bull knew the bear was exhausted and did not fall for the trick.  Instead, it countered with a persistent rally that rivaled the Bear’s Monday dive attack.  By the end of the week, the bull won the tug-of-war and was declared a winner.

SPY_Weekly

From the look of the weekly $SPY chart, the solid green bar that closed a bit more than half-way of the last week body of the red bar was a strong testament of the bull’s resolve to win back territory.  You could tell the strength of the bull’s resolution by the length of the shadow below the body of this week bar.  A bounce next week will confirm a higher low of the 2nd pivot low point.  The possibility of heading back above the 79 & 89 MA to reclaim them as support looks good from here.

$DMRC finally had a green Friday to halt the sequential falling prices for the past five trading days.  The bear wasted no effort in doing its might to push the price down.  But from the weekly chart below, the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports are quite formidable and the price bounced off them.

DMRC_weekly

Giving the 79 & 89 converged into a single line support (which is a powerful support per my book), there is a good probability of a bounce next week.  With so much positive fundamental developments going on, the bear is going to have a hard time pushing a giant beach ball underwater for long.  The undercurrent tension to bounce hard is like a hard-wounded spring that is about to break all resistances holding it down.

Undercurrent tension?  Where is that coming from?

Below are some of the new developments happening…

Thanks to a reader (Valueinvestor41) who provided me a link to the latest news development from Germany.

DMRC news2

Below is an additional excerpt from the German’s article above:

Not every genius invention gains adoption. That Digimarc and scanner manufacturer Datalogic have been able to get the largest retailers on their side, is a strong indication that this novelty has actual future potential. GS1 Germany is in conversation with their U.S. counterparts and currently assess Digimarc as an “interesting initiative.” According to GS1 CEO Jorg Pretzel the technology will be tested in the knowledge center of the trade organization and with several German consumer goods companies.

After mentioning that the “technology will be tested in the knowledge center….with several German consumer goods companies”, the article closed with the last sentence:

In Germany, the Rewe group is a pioneer in this area, as they are installing Datalogic image-based scanners in thousands of their stores.

Now, we all know that Datalogic image-based scanners is a full-fledged partner with Digimarc barcode system; thus common logic dictates that Rewe Group is looking into the Digimarc barcode system.

Why not?

From the Rewe Group website:

Rewe Group

15,000 stores!  Faster check-out speed (from using Digimarc invisible barcode) may allow reduction of cashier per store to handle average daily traffic using conventional laser scanners.  The payroll savings will be tremendous the more stores the big box retailers have.

Basically, Digimarc is no longer being “restricted” to the domestic U.S. market, it is getting noticed worldwide.

Another interesting bit from the German article:

Digimarc Barcodes on product packaging are not going to be widely deployed any time soon. The traditional barcode is on over 10 million products worldwide, and is essential for all IT processes in trade and industry which cannot be replaced in one go. Erik Bank from Digimarc and Thomas Pahlings from scanner manufacturer Datalogic assume that the innovation will first be deployed on private-label products — like with first-mover Wegmans. A retailer controls its own packaging, whereas for national brands the entire industry has to commit.

What this means is that once adoption trend get started with Walmart, Rewe, and/or other private brands retailers (I’m betting Digimarc barcode will be adopted), there will be a persistent growth factor build into $DMRC.  Think of the annual revenues growth from Digimarc when more and more items (out of over 10 million items) are being added to the Digimarc barcode system each year.

By going thru the news items in 2015 (click here):

DMRC news

I just don’t see the “grim tiding” referenced by the bearish bias article: “Does Insider Selling Suggest Grim Tidings For These Companies?”  Don’t forget that Bruce also has options to buy 345,000 b/w $9.64 to $30.01 exercise prices.  So, selling more shares now is not going to impact Bruce’s future gains on the stock appreciation.  And I don’t see why he can’t enjoy the fruit of his hard work right now by selling a bit more shares to augment his life style at the moment.  What’s wrong with smelling the roses while you are on the journey?

$AMRN also recovered at the tail-end of the week and formed a “hammer” look-a-alike weekly bar.  If price can take out the high of this week bar in the coming weeks, we may get a bounce that is going to take out the 89 MA resistance.  Weekly script numbers remained a bit lower than 14,000 but any positive settlement with the FDA by end of October may bump the weekly numbers much higher due to a clear “go ahead” from FDA in whatever they agreed on.

AMRN_weekly

From the weekly chart above, price is currently at the middle of the consolidation range with a possibility of a bounce from here.

$AKAO, meanwhile, has a bona-fide hammer bar.  A longer shadow below the body meant the bull fought back strongly. I like $AKAO ’cause it is the human last chance to come up with an antibacterials to treat multi-drug resistant gram-negative “deadly” infections.  “Deadly” is my own emphasis.  I believe we may have trial update by the end-of-the-year.

AKAO_weekly

Once price takes out this week high, $AKAO may resume the rally to see $9 soon is my take of it.

Biotech was hit hard this week due to political soundbite and $AMRN and $AKAO recovered amazingly; unfortunately I could not say the same for $ONCY.  The possibility of delisting from Nasdaq exchange by end of October is also looming ahead until $ONCY elected to do a reverse-split.  What surprise does $ONCY have for its investors we’ve yet to see.  Meanwhile, I’m still holding simply because of positive developments in their trials which the market was ignoring for the moment.

ONCY_weekly

There are support at the $0.40 level.

$BIOC finally had a red bar (bearish engulfment) after five-straight weeks of being up.  Recent development was an announcement of Biocept’s participation in MultiPlan’s Networks on Monday.  Unfortunately, $BIOC also succumbed to the the overall selling pressure from the Biotech sector.  While Friday green bar halted the falling price, price needs to bounce next week to counter the weekly bearish engulfment bar.  Just because a bear engulfment happened doesn’t mean it will be bearish.  It needs to be confirmed with a follow-up down day.  Thus, before confirmation, the bull can simply rally hard and negate the bearish “leaning” from the engulfment bar.

BIOC_weekly

Price found support at the $2.00 area.  As long as price can stay above the uptrend line below, Biocept is in good shape per my take.

$ARTH also suffered from the biotech sell-off and there seemed to be a lot of support around the $0.25 area going back to November of last year.  We are now in the fourth quarter and it is important that human trial starts soon for price to rally.  I’ve already bought my stake so I’m holding for the human trial despite current volatility.

ARTH_weekly

Notice there is still the 79 MA support below current price.  There is not much to do but wait for announcement of the human trial.  All price volatility between now and human trial are just loud noises precipitated by short-term traders as well as short-sellers and won’t mean anything on my book unless you’re trying to cash-out for any reason.

Needless to say, my port continued to suffer due to heavily weighted on biotech stocks.  As far as I’m concerned, it is all part of the volatility every speculator has to endure from time to time.  In the end, the successes of any of my companies I’ve a stake in will eclipse the volatility I’m seeing now.

Current holdings:

Main: DMRC, AMRN, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

From my camera:

(Please click on photo for enlarged version)

Sunny rainbow

I can see the sun despite the tall big leaves (short-sellers) trying to block it.  Cheers!



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

1 reply

  1. another nice article… well-written, thoughtful…

    Re: $DMRC and CEO Bruce’s inside sales… i see it as neutral/maybe modestly bullish. if you look at history of his sales (mostly 5k every month), he doesn’t rush to sell into spikes… its a planned sell, long ago booked and planned… So that, In effect, he’s taking a risk in allowing market forces dictate his future 5k sales… Everyone knows they are coming and when… No selling into price spikes… which to me shows confidence in the future price. He has many years left of those 5k sales. Letting em ride out because I believe he has confidence that the future is good.

    Also, below is a link to a negative (seeking alpha) article had one of the best rationales for Bruce’s planned ‘trickle’ sales… Due to a prior major divestiture, where shareholders were well-rewarded.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3233066-cracking-the-code-on-digimarc-deteriorating-business-will-continue-to-decline

    See the very first article response by EB DD. That was one of the greatest counter punches I have seen to any negative article.

    Good luck this week! Look forward to the next post.

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