Monday thought on $DMRC, $AMRN, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

Today waterfall started off as a normal down day but then grew into a much larger fall by the end of the day.

SPY_Daily

As predicted by the bearish weekly down bar below the 79 & 89 weekly resistance, market fell further and formed a relatively long red-bar.  There could be more down days ahead giving the momentum is still heading south.

Without question, today was also an ugly day for my port.  I’m not even going to pull up charts ’cause they all looked similar to the $SPY chart above.  So let’s talk about the mental exercise of dealing with today big down day.  To most stocks out there that dropped severely for the last two trading days, it was very natural to focus on the “could’ve, should’ve” debates that went through the mind.

“Damn, I knew I should have sold it last Thursday…”

“Why didn’t I take profit last week?”

“I could’ve cut my losses last week!”

For some reason, it was easy to behave as if a bad prophet had failed to act on the future he saw. Yeah, hindsight has a way to make one feels like a fallen prophet.  But the way I see it, I bought stocks that I believe will have a bright future “ahead” (as in not now).  The risk I’m taking is tied directly to the success and failure of the companies’ “technologies” I invested in.  My intention is to hold thru the years it will take the companies to realize their goals of bringing the new technologies into the marketplace. Thus, from this perspective, I do not need to worry about the current roller-coaster price action.

If my original intention of buying a stock is to swing trade, then I need to “anticipate” price action using well-known chart patterns to guide my buying and selling decisions.  The objective is to predict price direction and take actions (such as where to buy and where to take profit); then set up a money management plan (such as where to cut losses) in case price goes the wrong way.

Thus, there is a BIG difference in trading execution between a long-term investment and a swing-trade.  My focus is to avoid changing my long-term investment thesis into a swing-trade by not allowing myself to react to the market roller-coaster events.

Below is the reason for my long-term investments:

$AMRN- I’m betting that Vascepa sales will increase by leaps and bounds with the ability to promote off-label use for patients with 200-500 trig level.

$DMRC- I’m betting that the Digimarc invisible barcode will be adopted by major retailers in a year or two.

$AKAO- I’m betting that their antibacterials can treat multi-drug resistant gram-negative infections.

$ONCY- I’m betting that their REOLYSIN (a form of virus) can kill cancer cells.

$BIOC- I’m betting that their liquid biopsy multiple diagnostic tests will dominate the market.

$ARTH- I’m betting that their AC5 formula will become the “standard” hemostat device to use in the surgery room as well as military and law enforcement worldwide.

Thus, with my long-term outlook for the positions I’ve, today price action doesn’t mean much to me.  When I lose, it will be because the technologies fail. not because of panic selling due to roller-coaster market influence.

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, AMRN, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC   Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents.

Today photo:

Passing cloud

Like a cloud, this too shall pass…



Categories: Daily trading Journal, Trading philosophies and thoughts

Tags: , , , , , ,

2 replies

  1. hi Zen: related to dmrc… another rough day at the office… but thought i’d share something i totally missed

    this article was tweeted out a few weeks back and posted on dmrc’s web site a month back. I totally missed it. https://www.digimarc.com/press-and-media/digimarc-technology-in-the-news/2015/08/19/walmart-lets-the-barcode-disappear

    Couple nice quotes: ‘According to GS1 CEO Jorg Pretzel the technology will be tested in the knowledge center of the trade organization and with several German consumer goods companies’

    and

    ‘In Germany, the Rewe group is a pioneer in this area, as they are installing Datalogic image-based scanners in thousands of their stores.’

    Goes along with your recap of the Q2CC. This means interest is not just US based… The Rewe group is a really big opportunity…

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