Weekly thought on $DMRC, $AMRN, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

The market was not at all happy for the week.  Despite Yellen’s attempt to soothe the market, it was too little too late.

SPY_Weekly

One look at the chart and the bear can get excited easily ’cause the down red bar below the 79 & 89 weekly MA was quite menacing  You can feel the “pull” of the weight of the red bar.  While the after-hour SP500 is now down about 10 points, there is still opportunity for the bull to reclaim its bullish initiative the coming week.  A tail below the weekly red bar meant the bull fought back to prevent a solid red bar with no tail.

While Friday wasn’t a killer day for the $SPY, it was a killer day for my port.

From my perspective, $DMRC suffered the combination of short-attacks and panic selling due to a “timely” release of the article titled “Does Insider Selling Suggest Grim Tidings For These Companies?”   While the article “tried” to be impartial, it gave way to its dark message with the killer phrase- “Grim Tidings”.  Apparently, Bruce Davis, Digimarc CEO, sold additional 4,485 shares on Sept 21st besides the monthly “auto-sell” of the 5,000 shares he sold in Sept 1st.

OMG!  Bruce sold more shares!  The sky is falling!  Run for the hill!  

The article might have spooked some weak hands or even encouraged some more shorting.

For those who are on the fence trying to decide whether to hold or sell come Monday, perhaps it is a good idea to reread the last quarter earning transcript- click here. Below are some bits & pieces from the transcript:

“It’s been a pretty remarkable 2015 so far. We’ve made very good progress on our execution strategy for Digimarc Discover and Barcode, producing some extraordinary evidence of market interest and involvement.”

“Moving on to Digimarc Discover and Barcode, everyone’s probably aware by now of the consumer packaging proof of concept demonstration at the Emerging Trends conference in Arkansas, followed by favorable remarks in social media by Walmart’s CEO.”

“Elsewhere in retail, production for Wegmans private label products has ramped significantly. I’m pleased to report that we have a second retailer who has begun pilot production.”

“A third retailer is in the process of selecting the initial group of products to begin encoding. Several brands are contemplating entering production to support various proof of concept studies.”

“We anticipate several additional partners will join the program later this year.”

“We introduced the overarching concept of the barcode of everything in our communications during the quarter, seeking to communicate two profoundly important propositions. One, that whatever barcodes can do, we can do better, and two, that we can provide the functional equivalent of traditional barcodes in all media.”

“Shazam-ing, less than six months after the announcement of our collaboration. They’re now actively marketing the new opportunities enabled by our platform to their clients.”

“Several proof of concept studies for applications, other than improving scanning rates at checkout and improving ease of consumer engagement are in the works. For instance, we have been cleared for production with a leading consumer brand for a manufacturing quality control study. We recently learned that another major brand has received budget approval for proof of concept work involving shelf compliance and field inventory management.”

“There’s an ever-increasing demand for efficient and reliable access to dynamic data to deal with the nuances of complex packaging and label requirements, regulations, and consumer preferences. Our platform provides unprecedented performance and flexibility to meet these growing needs.”

I could go on and on but you get the points.  After going over the transcript looking for key phrases for the above exercise, a sense of calmness came over me.  Here is my thought….

This is a stock for the long-term fundamental play.  Current volatility created by short-term traders and short-sellers are just noises.  Until other big retailers (asides from Wegmans) come out to announce the adoption the Digimarc barcode system, there is NO WAY to avoid the current volatility when the trapped shorts are trying all kinds of tricks to get out of the jam.  Friday fall-out is unavoidable but that doesn’t mean the shorts have the upper-hand.  Far from it, until the shorts find sellers to cover at low price, they are as trapped as a cockroach inside the cockroach motel.  So, I’m not going to let Friday drop turns me into a lousy market timer.  With a tiny float, getting in and out of a position does NOT guarantee you will end up more favorable than your current position.  You could just as well end up paying a lot more to get back in when you are fighting for shares alongside with the shorts when surprise news come out.  Therefore, I’m just going to hold my shares and not worry about the “what if, could’ve, should’ve” scenarios that are quite prevalent if you let them rule your mind.

DMRC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, there is a support at $32.5x and another at the Fib 61.8% retracement of $31.1x.  There may be a bounce near the supports.  Not to mention that the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports are still far below.

$AMRN also fell back from resistance.  Friday script numbers did not achieve the 16,000 I was looking for but a decent 13,709.  I guess it is going to take a bit longer for the 1st Amendment effect to kick in.

AMRN_weekly

However, price is only consolidating between the 79 and 89 MA lines.

The volatility of $AKAO continued and price dropped on Friday along with most biotech stocks.

AKAO_weekly

While price penetrated the short-term uptrend, it is still above the long-term uptrend line that began from mid-May.

$ONCY also fell due to bad biotech week.

ONCY_weekly

The bright side is that the uptrend line began from July is still a support below current price.

The hero of the week is none other than $BIOC.  Biocept continued to defy general biotech correction and closed a solid green weekly bar.

BIOC_weekly

There is still the resistance of $2.74 that price needs to penetrate to move higher.  This week was the fifth UP week so far with no stopping in between.

$ARTH was no exception when it came to biotech correction week.  Price tried to rally early in the week but succumbed to selling pressure.  As long as human trial is still up-in-the-air, traders and skeptics are going to bounce this stock around.

ARTH_weekly

There are supports at the $0.25 areas.

Since I did not participate in trying to time the market in any of my long-term stock positions, my port obviously is taking in water; but the bright side of my port is that they are all cash position with no margin.  So, I’m just going to have to ignore my current port status and do something else to “smell the roses” so to speak.

In speaking of roses, I recently restarted my photography hobby and would like to share a photo here to close my post.  Enjoy!

Current holdings:

Main port: DMRC, AMRN, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents

Red Roses



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , , ,

3 replies

  1. nice post on $dmrc ; agree 100%. i’m still shocked by short interest rising so quickly in past 1.5 months. my only question is how much higher can it go? q3 cc just 1 month away, and a small tweet or post or pr could send this up again quickly… now with double the short interest it had prior to wmt ceo instagram.

    thx for the great post

    • It seems to me that the shorts are trying VERY HARD to push $DMRC down. Each time they added to the short-interest to walk the price down, $DMRC refused to cave in and stubbornly bounced right back which frustrated the shorts to no end. Friday was another attempt which happened to work on the short’s favor. Let’s see if $DMRC can frustrate the short once again. Remember, just because the shorts are successful in walking the price down, they still need to cover. Until then, more cockroaches in the motel…

      Thanks for the feedback.

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