The market is seeing shooting star alright, but it’s the shooting star candlestick topping formation. First, we got China. Now, Europe didn’t want to be ignored. And the bear dances once again. From the above daily chart, Friday down day confirmed the shooting star topping formation. The probability of a continued general market downtrend is high. From the weekly chart above, price started off going over the 79 & 89 MA resistance but failed to maintain altitude and fell back below it. A drop below this week low of $194.96 will confirm further bearish momentum. From the overall scheme of thing, it doesn’t look good. Meanwhile, $AMRN defied the general market by having a neutral week. Script number this Friday was 12,317 for a 4-days work week with Labor day off (Friday Script # are always for the week before). Divided 12,317 by 4 you get 3,079 per day. 5 days = 3,079 x 5 = 15,395. Potentially, a regular week could bring in 15,400 for the week which is 1,232 better than last week of 14,168. Of course, we will need to see how this week (full five-days) performed to confirm another true 1,000+ increase in weekly script. If we are growing 1,000+ or higher per week, then this week total (to be reported next Friday) should come close to 16,000. If this is the case, Amarin is on track for super growth script increase. Of course, there is still a lot of speculation but take a look at the patient population of those who has 200-499 trig level below: Source: Amarin Corporation plc Rodman & Renshaw 17th Annual Global Investment Conference September 8, 2015 – September 10, 2015 New York, NY That is 36 million people in the Anchor study alone. There are only 3.6% being treated per the table above. With the 1st Amendment win, Amarin may have an opportunity to increase that percentage by bringing more awareness of a pharmaceutical graded EPA that actually proved to reduce trig level per FDA approved study to the market. Think about this, even if Amarin succeeded in winning 1% of this population, that is 360,000 weekly script number. The cat is out of the bag and there is no stopping Amarin now is my take of it. I’m holding my shares for further appreciation. By the look of the weekly chart above, it has a higher-high and a higher-low week. Price is now at the 89 MA resistance. Price needs to climb over that quickly. However, if the general market corrects further next week, Amarin may dip a bit but I wouldn’t chance it with swing trading. $DMRC also defied the general market by having a slightly better week than last week. Price did dip down but recovered by close of week. One thing we all know is that Walmart is testing the Digimarc barcode system. I just couldn’t see them denying the advantage of new science (digimarc invisible barcode) that can improve efficiency as well as better product control- from packaging to inventory management to customers communication. To me, it’s a matter of when, not if. Due to small float, I’m not swing-trading this one either. For those who missed the Walmart’s CEO instagram mentioning the Digimarc barcode, click here. The way I see this, as time progresses, the closer we are to Walmart making a decision. When will that be is any one guess but I wouldn’t be without shares when the announcement is made. Win or loss, this is a bet with a very high reward for the risk. Not to mention that there are close to 15% short-interest (or over 1 millions shares shorted) on this small float of 6.6 million shares. This week bar can be qualified as a doji bar as far as I’m concerned. A doji bar near the Fib 50% retracement also provided better probability of a bounce. $AKAO also defied the general market by having a positive green week. With TTPH’s antibiotic drug trial failure, $AKAO is our next hope. If they succeed, they will take a big piece from the market on antibacterials to treat multi-drug resistant gram-negative infections in the United States. Below is from the $AKAO’s website:
NEW ANTIBIOTICS ARE NEEDED FOR RESISTANT GRAM-NEGATIVE INFECTIONS According to the CDC, at least two million people each year in the United States acquire serious infections with bacteria that are resistant to one or more of the antibiotics designed to treat those infections, and each year, over 20,000 patients in the United States die from these infections. In the European Union, the annual burden posed by resistant healthcare associated bacterial infections is approximately 2.5 million hospital days and 25,000 deaths. Similar problems exist throughout the world, and the World Health Organization has declared antibiotic resistance a threat to global health security. The CDC estimates that the excess annual cost resulting from these infections in the United States is as high as $20 billion. According to an estimate from a 2012 study of over 5,500 U.S. patients, the average incremental per-patient hospital cost for antibiotic-resistant healthcare-associated infections, as compared to antibiotic-susceptible infections, was over $15,000.
Source: www.achaogen.com/ There is no question that we want Achaogen antibiotic to succeed for the better of mankind. Below is the table for Achaogen’s pipeline: Source: Achaogen.com/pipeline-overview/ There are two major Phase III trials that can kick this one way up if trial results are positive. This week green bar continues the steady uptrend momentum. I expect price to climb to next resistance of $9 by year-end in anticipation of positive Phase III trials result. $ONCY also defied the general market by having a positive week and a green bar as well. $ONCY has so many trials going on that pretty soon, Oncolytics Biotech is going to hit the jackpot on one of their Orphan Drug Designations obtained for REOLYSIN. Take a look at their multiple trials going on in the table below: Source: oncolyticsbiotech.com Corporate presentation September 2015 With so many trials going on, the likelihood of more positive news is high. Not to mention the addressable market for ONCY’s technology also expands as more positive news from various trials start to come in. See figure below to see the potential markets: Source: oncolyticsbiotech.com Corporate presentation September 2015 Let’s just say after all these years of investigations and researches on Reolysin, it is time for Reolysin to hit the market and cure people. I’m betting that $ONCY is a potential buy-out candidate for the BP to start processing the Reolysin technology into real life application of curing people with cancer. Thus, I won’t be swing-trading this stock but to hold on for potential surprise announcement. From the weekly chart above, you can see prices refused to be pushed down. This week is spinning top bar after two doji bars. There are undercurrent of bull in this stock. I can see price taking out the downtrend line to the upside soon. $BIOC also defied the general market by having an up green bar. Biocept has weathered hard against the bear’s short attack. Eventually, fundamental will win at the end. Take a look at Biocept’s claims in below table: Source: biocept.com/patients/ If Biocept can prove their claim on “Biocept has developed the most advanced methods for finding cancer cells and DNA fragments in the blood,” watch out! However, we are seeing a doji week bar near the resistance of 15 MA. Since I’m a strong believer in favorable probability as a result of doji with support/resistance, I have to warn of possible correction even though I’m long the stock. But high probability doesn’t mean sure thing. So, a continued bounce is also in the card. Needless to day, $ARTH is the only stock in my total portfolio that went further south than the general market. But price only gave back quick gain from previous three weeks. Before human trial starts, this stock is a plaything for the short and short-term traders fighting for that last penny. Below is a reminder of $ARTH’s AC5 advantages over all other existing hemostat devices: Source: Arch Therapeutics Investor Presentation Current price is now supported by the weekly 89 XMA line. I believe this support will hold for the duration of waiting for the human trial. Yeap, I’m holding for the human trial despite current price volatility. Friday was an even day for the port but the week gained back 1.6%. Current holdings: Main port: DMRC, AMRN, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC Trading port: ARTH My 2 cents
Categories: Daily trading Journal