Weekly thought on $AMRN, $DMRC, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

All is not lost yet, the bull recovered nicely from last week inside red bar.  Nevertheless, the bull still has plenty of work to do.

SPY_Weekly

Price is still under the weekly 79 & 89 MA support so the resistance has to be overcome by the bull quickly for the long-term trend to be back on track.  You could see the green bar this week is now becoming the pivotal point of the symmetrical triangle.  A break out of either side is going to happen soon.

$AMRN continued to advance this week.  The surprise update this week is the spike in script numbers.  Instead of the usual hundreds more, it was up by a thousand plus.

AMRN script

My entire thesis of holding $AMRN is resting on the speculation that script numbers are going to increase by leaps and bounds after the 1st Amendment win on the injunction.  There are over 30 million patients out there with 200-499 trig. level per my understanding; that mean even 1% of this population (300,000 patients) represents a significant increase in total script for off-label use.  This week “might” be the start of an accelerated growth in weekly script numbers.  Before the win on 1st Amendment case, $AMRN sales force could NOT discuss the Anchor’s result for off-label use unless asked by the doctors first; now $AMRN sales force can say, “Btw, doc, are you aware that Amarin did an FDA approved Vascepa study for Anchor indication which is for patients with 200-499 trig level?”

“No, tell me more.  I’ve a few patients with trig in that level…”

This is it, now I just sit and watch this $AMRN grows to be a big big tree.

AMRN_weekly

Price is now a stone throw away from taking out the weekly 89 XMA resistance.  A break out of this seven months consolidation may kick off another run on the uptrend direction.

$DMRC had a good start but gave it all back plus some by end of the week.  Interesting tidbit this week is that the short-interest for $DMRC ballooned to over 1 million shares which represented 16% of the float.  In the half-month since 08/14, short interests went up by 267K shares or 33%.. This might have to do with the short-sellers piling up on the shorts during the market melt-down in late August.  Unfortunately, price did not go down as much as the short wanted.  The drops from the last two days might be shorts’ new attempt to push the price down to stop their bleeding.

DMRC_weekly

While a down weekly bar this week, the overall trend is still up.  Price is still relatively high above the weekly 79 & 89 MA support lines.  The 5 MA is now touching the 15 MA line, there is a good probability of the 5 MA bouncing off the 15 MA from here.

$AKAO, despite a red weekly bar, was actually doing pretty good after withstanding the after-shocks of TTPH”s antibiotic drug trial failure.

AKAO_weekly

Price closed nicely above the weekly 15 MA support line.  A long-tail below the body is also bullish.  Look like price is going back up soon.

$ONCY formed another doji bar this week.

ONCY_weekly

Since price is already at the historical low points, the more doji bars, the better.  This means the bear is losing momentum and is failing to push the price down any further.  The more doji bars at the historical low, the higher the probability of a bottom-formation.

$BIOC did good this week by closing with another green bar.

BIOC_weekly

Price finally broke out of the downtrend line for the first time.  Now, some of you might think that I arbitrary moved the downtrend line to “make” a breakout to appear.  Actually, I’m using the two highest highs to draw my downtrend line.  Please see below daily chart that showed the two circles representing the two highest highs for me to draw the line.

BIOC_daily

See, we’ve a legit breakout of the downtrend line per my book. Bottom line is that liquid biopsy is getting traction and institutional awareness is also increasing.

$ARTH had a spectacular week.  The weekly green bar was up 15%!  Per the recent 17th Annual Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference in New York City, it seems that $ARTH is simply waiting for the foreign regulatory agency to give them a “go ahead” to do the human trial.  In other words, this is a simple matter of red tape.  A trial could start any time they get the green light.  For those who are not in, I don’t blame them for trying to get back in now.  Price can spike up with no warning and you can be left with dust on your face if you are still thinking about buying in for the play.

ARTH_weekly

That was a nice green weekly bar.  It looks like price is going to take out the recent high soon enough.

So far, my positions are still on-track as far as I’m concerned.

Current holdings:

Main port: AMRN DMRC AKAO ONCY BIOC  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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