Tuesday thought on $AKAO, $BIOC, $ARTH

What a good way to kick off the week after Labor Day!  A fabulous rally with more continuation in the after-hour market.  We may have a weekly green bar this week to counter the gloomy weekly red bar last week.

SPY_Daily

By coincident, the green bar today is directly on the nose of the symmetrical triangle.  Another up bar tomorrow and we are on the way back to previous high soon enough. Bear? What bear? Oh, you want a beer?

$AKAO worth mentioning today due to the after-hour disaster on $TTPH- a whopping 78% decline in price. Apparently, TPH’s antibiotic fails late-stage trial.  It so happened that TTPH’s antibiotic also included covering multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infections which happened to be $AKAO’s forte.  With competitor out of the way, success of $AKAO’s multidrug-resistant Gram-negative antibiotic will surely provide ample high-octane fuel to send this rocket to …

AKAO_daily

Currently, price is trading near $7.  Let’s see how market reacts to $AKAO tomorrow in light of $TTPH failure.

$BIOC finally popped in the right direction and remained a green bar on the gap-up day.  News out today, “Biocept’s Liquid Biopsy Lung Cancer Target Selector Assay to be featured at World Conference on Lung Cancer.” Here an excerpt below:

“Results of our study indicate that the non-invasive Target Selector™ assay could have a role in managing patients with metastatic lung cancer,” said Lyudmila A. Bazhenova, M.D., UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center. “For example, a patient was correctly identified as having an emerging T790M resistance to Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors (TKI) with the Target Selector™ assay prior to confirmation by tissue biopsy. This patient was then placed on a next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor and has subsequently demonstrated radiographic response to this change in treatment.”

This is a validation that the diagnostic test works!  This is a test that will require repeat usage per patient to monitor the status of recovery.  Once $BIOC’s diagnostic tests become the gold standard, you are talking about major revenue stream here.

BIOC_daily

This is the 2nd time a gap-up with a green bar at the close.  If you looked back to late April, literally all gap-up ended with a red-bar.  Now, the pattern has shifted, $BIOC were getting green bars after the gap-up day. In summary, the tide has turned.

Here is another take on the short-interest.  Take a look at the table below, notice that the short-volume started to increase in January 2015 and then ballooned from Feb 124K to Mar 1,376K; that’s 1,000% increase!  What happen in Feb/Mar that prompted the big jump in short interest?  Well, you guessed it, price rallied strongly from $1.15 to $4.91. Shorts immediately piled up their short attack. Then in April, shorts added 325K shares to walked the price down to low of $2.05. By end of May, the shorted added another 625K to accumulate a total short-interest of 2.2 million shares.

BIOC Short-biweekly

Source: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/bioc/short-interest

Starting June, short-interest began to fluctuate b/w low 2 million to 2.2 million shares in alternative bi-months; the short-sellers action of covering and re-shorting ~100K+ alternatively create a pumping action to push price down.  Now, look at the daily chart below which covered price action from Feb to current:

BIOC_daily

This whole downtrend from high of $4.91 to where we are now is closely tied to the increasing short-interest.  You can see that prices were being slammed back down after each gap-up until recently. But all these “slamming” came with a cost.  It’s the cost of having to increase the minimum numbers of shorted shares to keep price low.  But the short picked the wrong “ball” to hold down the price.  Imagine you are trying to push a fully inflated basketball under the water.  You know how hard it is physically to keep the ball under the water. And the deeper you try to push the basketball down into the water, the harder and strenuous it is to keep the ball down.  With more positive update on its various cancer diagnostic tests, the ball the shorts has been pushing is transforming itself into a basketball.  It is not going to be that easy to keep $BIOC down anymore.

It is my 2 cents that this $BIOC basketball is going to pop right out of the water so violently that the shorts holding it down will undoubtedly get a bloody nose.

$ARTH also released good news today. “Arch Therapeutics Obtains Additional Positive Safety Data for AC5 Surgical Hemostatic Device(TM) in Preclinical Toxicity Test of Sensitization.”  Basically, today news eliminates the concern that AC5 may create immune response in the tissue it applied on.  This is very good news.  One more step closer to the human trial.  Tomorrow at the 17th Annual Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference, we may find out more about the status of the human trial.

ARTH_daily

Chart looks good,  Price is acting like it wants to go up badly!

Thanks to rally from $AMRN, $DMRC, and $BIOC, my port gained back another 1.1% for the day.

Current holdings:

Main port: AMRN, DMRC, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC.  Trading port: ARTH

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , ,

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