Weekly thought on $AMRN, $DMRC, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

You’ve got to give the bull credit for staging a respectable come-back after a steep-waterfall Monday.

SPY_Weekly

Thanks goodness for the solid green bar this week.  Can you imagine what it will be like if we’ve a second solid long red bar this week?  From the look of the weekly chart, last year October support is now the de facto support for the bull. Price closed inside the 79 & 89 MA line.  Next week will stage the beginning of the pivotal battle b/w the bull and the bear to win the final trend for the rest of the year.  Whether we will have an uptrend line to close the year or a falling one will depend on who win in September.  While there are some out there who proclaimed that the bull has suffered a mortal wound the last two weeks and the market will begin the bearish decline from here.  I’m from the different thought that the market only felt a bee stung the last two weeks that did nothing to stall the continuing bull market.  Why?

My logic is simply based on my dime-store economic theory that there are simply too much money floating in the global economy thanks to the multiple QE solutions to bail out the 2008 financial crisis.  Instead of super-inflation as originally feared that prompted the previous sharp rally of gold price; the money found a better way to relieve the surplus and still help us to battle inflation-  stock market.  Inflation is there but the impact of the inflation is alleviated by the increasing wealth in the equity market.  People can pay their inflated bills with gains from the stock market.  With interest rate still at all time low, there is an inherent danger in holding too much cash.  You risk losing the value of cash for a false sense of safety.

If the market crashes now or if the bear wins, the world economy will suffer together.  It will not be like any other bear market ever.  By then, what good is your wealth If you can’t venture into the street safely to buy food?  So, the global gov’ts and central banks will do everything to keep this bull market running.  There will be occasional bee stung like the last two weeks but that will be it.  Those permanent bears, in my opinion, has gotten the “correct time twice a day for a broken clock” moment last week.  Be prepared for the new batch of new “bear” experts who “correctly” predicted the fall of the last two weeks to continue on their prophecy of doom and gloom. As far as I’m concerned, the bull will resume.

$AMRN also recovered admirably this week.  This week green bar more than recovered 50% of last week red bar.

AMRN_weekly

Price is now in the upper part of the consolidation range.  Apparently, Amarin and the FDA agreed to continue the discussion of a settlement that has a October 30th deadline.  My 2 cents is that the recent 1st Amendment win has already waken up a part of the doctor’s population.  Many might have already “initiated” requests for more information regarding Vascepa off-label use. The accelerated growth of weekly script numbers might have already begun.  If that is the case, expect a long-term zig-zag upward trend from here.

$DMRC also performed nicely by a strong green weekly bar to close the week.  As I’ve said before, even I wanted $DMRC to go back down to below $30 so I could buy them back cheap; but I realized the waiting was futile due to Walmart’s CEO’s instagram post:

Monday’s post from Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon describes a photo “Inside Walmart’s Lab 415-C,” where a bag of potato chips pass over what appears to be a standard grocery store barcode scanner. But McMillon says it is “invisible watermarking,” which “could transform the way our customers check out.”

Hence, I decided to use the cash from sales of $LRAD to buy $DMRC without waiting for it to drop.  Here is my suggestion to the clueless shorts, do not discount Walmart’s CEO instagram posting the same way you wouldn’t discount the possibility of a tsunami after confirmation of an earthquake miles away from your beach by the satellite’s eyes.  Ask yourself why would Walmart’s CEO even bother with the instagram posting if progress is not leaning on the possibility of adoption?  Sure, the final decision has yet to be made but to discount the CEO’s instagram as nonsense will be like denying the instinctual habit of the scorpion to sting when the frog is carrying it across the turbulent water.  Here is my formula:

Walmart’s CEO instagram post = higher probability of Walmart adopting of Digmarc barcode.

We are talking probability- like a doji near the support.  Stock market win is based on correctly assessing the probability of a direction you are betting on and then bet accordingly.

DMRC_weekly

Isn’t that a beautiful daily green bar on the $DMRC chart above?  Price is now heading higher and away from the 79 & 89 support line.  Any new positive update from Digimarc and we will be looking at new high pretty soon.

While $AKAO did not recovered as strong as $AMRN and $DMRC, it was still a respectable recovery.

AKAO_weekly

For the week, price closed near the $7 and it would be a stone-throw away from being above $7.  I anticipate a slow uptrend toward the end of the year when interim result from their trial result will be available.

$ONCY did a fantastic job with a strong weekly green bar that surpassed last week red bar.

ONCY_weekly

This strong green weekly bar might just be the bottom formation the longs are looking for.  There are simply too many positive results from trial results where the bear-side kept saying, “not good enough” for the market to keep on denying the validity of using virus to kill cancer cells.  Eventually, “a” positive trial result in the near future will just be the last straw that breaks the camel back.  I’m waiting for that moment to happen.

I’m not surprised of another weekly green bar for $BIOC.  Why?  Below are writings on the wall:

  1. Prostate diagnostic test will be available soon (under ‘About Biocept’ on any new releases, you will see, “Biocept currently offers assays for gastric cancer, breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma, and plans to introduce CLIA-validated assays for prostate cancer and other solid tumors in the near term.”
  2. Hiring of an “interim” CFO with acquisition experience
  3. Insiders exercise of options by Lyle Arnold, Ph.D. (Senior Vice-President of Research & Development, Chief Scientific Officer), David F. Hale (Chairman of the Board), and Michael W. Nall (President & Chief Executive Officer) on August 24th (after the announcement of hiring the interim CFO).
  4. #2 and #3 above open the possibility of a buy-out.  To discount this possibility as nonsense (by the short-sellers) giving #2 & #3 is like ignoring the possibility of a tornado when you noticed your tree in your Florida home is bend over 30 degree by the strong gale.  The trapped shorts have no choice but to live in denial.

Let me show you a few charts below for Bank of America and Western Refining, Inc that short-sellers wanted you to believe they were on the way to bankruptcy at their lowest points in the price decline.

2012 BAC_weekly

By the tail-end of 2012, the shorts were having a field days declaring the demise of BofA.

2010 WNR_weekly

The same went for Western Refining, Inc as well.  Back then, the pending loan payment was a drag but the short-sellers automatically assumed that WNR would not be able to refinance.  By October 2010, the table turned and the shorts were incinerated along the way. WNR closed at $43.23 this week.

Well, do you think liquid biopsy will go away and disappear like the clueless short-sellers would like you to believe?  With the prostrate diagnostic test kit still in the lab waiting to become available, I’m sure the would-be partner/BO (if any) is just as excited.  My 2 cents is that the short-sellers can no longer rely on “current revenue and cost structure” picture to paint a bearish future on liquid biopsy.  If they are, they are living in denial.  But then, what can a trapped shorts do but to continue to believe in their own BS so as not to get panic out too soon.  Eventually, the sh*t is going to hit the short-sellers’ fan.  I’ll stay clear from the short-sellers for hygienic reason.

BIOC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, $BIOC is now hugging the uptrend line below with two weekly green bars to increase the probability of a further bounce.

Someone let the hunting dogs out and $ARTH went bonko to hit the high of $0.34 cents before the dogs were put back into the pound.

ARTH_weekly

Oh well, the time is not yet right to let the dogs out.  I’ll be waiting patiently.

Thanks to strong rallies from my positions in my port, my main port gained back another 5.2% for the day.

Current holdings:

Main port: AMRN DMRC AKAO ONCY BIOC and 5.2% cash.  Trading account: ARTH

My 2 cents



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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