Wednesday thought on $AMRN, $DMRC, $AKAO, $ONCY, $BIOC, $ARTH

That was quite a come back for the market after taking a deep dive to the bottom of the pit.  Guess what, it was the last year close that did the trick of supporting today drop.  Price bounced off the December close of $205.54 and roared right back to the neutral ground.  If this is not a bullish sign, I don’t know what is.

SPY_Daily

Price is now back to the middle of the symmetrical triangle.  My take is that bull will take a day or two to rest before continuing on.  It needs to take out the 79 & 89 resistance soon.

Unfortunately, my port did not have the same bullish stance as the market.  $AKAO finally gave back all gain in today drop.  Bang! Just like that.  My prediction of a continuing uptrend was totally off. But I’m still holding on. It is really pointless for me to try to sell along with the short sellers ’cause I would be filled at the bottom of the price range.  Since I’m long on the fundamental, I’ll hold this one thru volatility.  For a small biotech company like $AKAO, it would be a fool game trying to time the trade when I’m swinging for the big pay-off.  From my past experience, I’ve learned to stick with the fundamental after finding a comfortable purchase level.  There would be a lot of up and down (seeing gain appears and disappears) along the way until the fundamental improves to sustain a rising price.  This is the only way to make maximum profit in biotech stock.  There were plenty of times I thought I did good by timing my in and out but ended up on the sideline when price took off all of a sudden when I was out of the stock.  Of course, in order to pick the “right” biotech stock for this kind of long-term fundamental play, I’ve to analyze the data and fact and weight the possibility of success.  If I’m wrong, I stand to lose quite a bit of money.

AKAO_daily

Price may find support at the 79 MA line here.  There is still a possibility of a bounce from here to maintain the overall bullish trend.

$BIOC continued to drop but did recover some to close.  I’ve already allocated my fund into this stock and I’m content to just let it get pushed around by short-sellers and day traders.  Sooner or later, the short sellers have to cover.  If there are not enough sellers when they cover, price can only go back up.  I’ve learned to take any downdraft caused by short-sellers as a “temporary” situation.  The important thing to remember is that in order for the short-sellers to lock in gain, they have to cover first.  So with price down for the last few days, I’m seeing a potential “buying” force building up.  Any positive news and this stock will go banana.

BIOC_daily

Today green bar might just be the possible bottom here.  Let’s see what the short can do tomorrow.

$ONCY closed the day with a dragonfly doji bar. This is a doji where open and close price are at the high of the day. This one has the potential be a market turning points.

ONCY_daily

What I like about this dragonfly doji is that it closed right at the support line.

$DMRC closed with a spinning top next to the support line.

DMRC_daily

I see a possible bounce tomorrow.

$AMRN bounced today and I like the spinning top candlestick bar right on top of the 79 & 89 MA support line.

AMRN_daily

I’m also seeing a possible bounce tomorrow as well.

$ARTH dropped a bit more but still closed at the 79 & 89 support line which is good.

ARTH_daily

I sure hope the downdraft for the last three days were caused by short-sellers.  As discussed before, they may be able to bring the price down but they still need to buy them back to close the trade.  As long as there are enough long-term holders who did not get panic-out by the short-selling, the act of covering by the short will drive the price back up.

Due to $AKAO giving back gain, my port gave back another 1.2%.  YTD losses is now at 14.9%.  As I mentioned yesterday, I’m no longer concerned about the day-to-day gain or losses on my port.  As the way it looks, my port may get more ugly before it get better.  At this point, I believe I’ve settled on the few selected high-beta stocks as my committed positions.  I’m going to ride this port out till the end of the year and see how it goes.  Btw, my main port is a cash account with no margin; so I won’t be subjected to liquidation from margin call no matter how ugly it gets.

Current holdings:

Main port: AMRN, DMRC, AKAO, ONCY, BIOC and 5.4% cash.  Trading port: ARTH (up 6.4%).

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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