What do you know? My prediction that there would be a correction today was right on. Well, the truth is that statistic gave me an edge to be right. This is no difference than a Blackjack card-counter predicting the dealer to bust based on the high numbers of high cards in the shoe. There is no guarantee that the dealer will bust but is expected to be busted statistically speaking. So, a doji or a spinning top at the resistance (or support) pushes the odd in favor for a drop from resistance (or a bounce from support). If all you do is take trades based on doji and spinning top at resistance or support, you will do well when you manage your loss with discipline. In fact, I made some quick money buying the SP500 e-mini put options yesterday because of this spinning top at resistance. I cashed out before close.
Will there be a follow-up to the downside? With $AAPL lower guidance and the after-hour drop of almost $9 buck, the odd of follow-up by the general market to the downside is high tomorrow.
I reshuffled my port today by reducing some shares in $LRAD and $AMRN and added to $ONCY and $AKAO. I also added $SWIR as a new position. I’d no choice but to peel off non-performing $LRAD and $AMRN so I could add more $ONCY and $AKAO since they both were bouncing in the morning. I also bought some $NUGT for the bounce but was stopped out later in the day when the upward momentum evaporated into thin air.
I like $SWIR ’cause price appears to be bouncing. Price was holding strong all day despite a negative market.
I was getting a “feel” that price wanted to go up. However, with $AAPL down after-hour, I’m not sure if $SWIR can continue the bounce tomorrow due to its being a tech stock. I may bail and take small losses if price drops below yesterday low.
Meanwhile, with a surprising twist in a down market, three of my biotech positions closed higher- $BIOC, $ONCY, and $AKAO.
$ONCY closed higher by 3.12% for the day. It might have to do with the two articles (Oncolytics: Killing Cancer With a Virus; and Two Interviews With Dr. Brad Thompson, CEO Of Oncolytics) from Seeking Alpha which are quite informative. In a nutshell, $ONCY is at the stage where their scientists are ready to commercialize their reovirus in a year or two. However, the company does not have a post-approval operation to take their cure to the public. They are expecting to partner with a BP or to be acquired by a BP. I’m expecting the latter simply because $AMGN bought BioVex which had their own virus therapy called T-Vec. With $AMGN paying around $1 billion dollars for BioVex about four years ago, $ONCY with a small market cap of $75 million as of today closing price will have a lot of upside movement if its reovirus REOLYSIN gets the nod from FDA. Hence, my adding more $ONCY today.
Price is now at the top of the flag pattern. A break out can happen if there is some news out or new buying interest coming in tomorrow.
$AKAO chart looked good after today price action.
Price is now above the $6.93 support as well as above all 5, 15, 79 & 89 MA lines. Price looks like it wants to bounce some more so I added more today. Basically, I’m shifting money from non-performing stock to ones that want to perform.
While $BIOC did not bounce much for the day, it was still a good day in a negative market.
I take a small up day over a down day. The fact that price bounced a little today confirmed that the spinning top at support provided better odd for a bounce.
$AMRN’s morning drop prompted me to lighten up to free up cash for other speculation.
It was during the last hour that price bounced back up to close near even. However, I’m not sure if price will hold. I’ll keep an eye on it to look for opportunity to add back.
$LRAD disappointed again so I peeled a bit off when the bids were there. Despite the peeling, it is still my largest position in the port.
Price bounced off the $1.84 support from the weekly chart above. Hopefully, we are seeing a bottom here. But good news is needed for a meaningful bounce from here.
$ARTH had its second day of correction. At you can see on the daily chart below, price bounced off the Fib 38.2% retracement from recent June low to July high.
Now, I just need to be patient to ride the volatility here. I’m betting that any news on the start of a human trial will spike this one up to the next level.
Thanks to gains on the three biotech stocks, it was able to reduce drawdown from $LRAD to 0.50% loss for the day. YTD gain is now at 3.3%.
Main port: LRAD, BIOC, ONCY, AKAO, SWIR, AMRN and 6.3% cash. Trading port: ARTH (up 35%)
My 2 cents.
Categories: Daily trading Journal