07-07-2015 Journal- $LRAD, $BIOC, $ONCY, $AKAO, $RBY, $AMRN

Not quite YET!  Just when you thought the market was going to bounce higher tomorrow after today spectacular turn-around, China free-fall market is now dragging the bull back down.  SP500 is now down 15.8 points as I’m typing.  Folk, welcome to the month of volatility.

SP500_afterhour

Are you ready for tomorrow?  Who know, perhaps it will do another turn-around stunt tomorrow or even tonight…

Well, I sold $AMRN today when price began to drop in the morning.  I did not know the reason for the drop but it was not a good sign during oral argument.  After market close, a reading of iHub seemed to suggest that FDA did not present their case very well which might explain the bounce back later in the day. Does Amarin has a strong case?  The outer appearance seems like it; but don’t forget that this case is nothing like the NCE (new chemical entity) which doesn’t involve people.  FDA main argument, while sound stupid to some, is of safety issue when the drug hasn’t been proven to be effective.  FDA highlighted the 30+ million potential patients for this off-label use.  In other words, the FDA wants the judge to feel the “weight” of the responsibility if the drug turns out to be not-so-safe for a percentage of this population.  The problem with this argument is that FDA also invited Amarin to sell Vascepa thru the OTC market with the expanded label. So, if it is not safe due to unproven effectiveness, why is FDA allowing Amarin to sell thru the OTC market?  There’s a conflict right there.  Another conflict the judge pointed out:

“from Stumbling on ihub:

Judge said to the FDA,’you have been inviting Amarin to market the drug as OTC, where they could make the claim about “substantial but not conclusive” evidence of reduction in cardio-vascular events. Let’s assume that Amarin did that for the Anchor population, but continued to market Vascepa as a prescribed drug for Marine. So you would have the exact same drug for two different indications. Why should the statement be considered truthful and not misleading in one context and not in the other? The FDA didn’t have a good answer.

Despite the appearance of strong argument from Amarin’s, don’t forget that the judge has to weight the decision against the FDA’s “intent” to keep the patient population safe and Amarin’s “intent” to promote Vascepa for off-label use thru the 1st Amendment free-speech argument.

AMRN_daily

The chart still looks strong after today recovery. Do I regret selling?  Yes and No.  No because it was the right thing to do at the time.  Yes because the risk/reward is still good after the price recovery. Perhaps China free-fall market will bring everything down tomorrow so I can buy back some before the Judge’s decision is announced.

I added more $AKAO ’cause price was quite strong despite the early market free-fall.  This further confirmed my “intuition” that something is cooking at $AKAO.  Price action for the last five trading days seemed to suggest that price wanted to go up.  While the last two spike up (May and June) failed, perhaps the coming spike in July will stick to the wall this time?

AKAO_daily

I’m excited to see if I’m corrected in my “gut” feeling in the coming future.

$BIOC finally finished the day with a green bar. Yeah!

BIOC_daily

Again, it bounced off the uptrend line and the $2.51 support.  Shall it move higher now to take out the symmetrical triangle to the upside this time?  Notice the 5 MA line is now pointing up.  I’m waiting for Biocept to announce the availability of kit to test for prostrate cancer.  I think this news will really drive the price up.  Consider the alternative of getting a tissue biopsy of the male prostrate, I’m sure many will vote for liquid biopsy.

$ONCY continued to correct a bit more.

ONCY_daily

Due to my double-down yesterday, I’m now at breakeven instead of sitting in gain.  That’s alright ’cause I’m going to wait it out.

$LRAD did not recover like everyone else after the initial drop.

LRAD_daily

There is nothing for me to do but to wait it out as well. At least, price is still above the Fib 61.8% retracement level.  Oh, I added some more $LRAD to round up my position size.  Remember, I sold some last week to buy $ONCY.

$RBY also recovered some after the initial drop.  I did add some more at the $0.94 level.

RBY_daily

Price closed back up at the uptrend line which is very good. Sooner or later, the gold bug will rise up and this one will be a star soon enough.

Well, with $ONCY and $LRAD down, my port gave back another 1.4% for the day.  YTD gain is now at 3.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, BIOC, ONCY, AKAO, RBY and 7.4% cash.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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