07-06-2015 Journal- $LRAD, $BIOC, $AMRN, $ONCY, $RBY, $AKAO

Really?  I mean REALLY?  The Greece supposedly already DEFAULTED on their loan to IMF due last week and the referendum was supposed to be the people choice to confirm their prime minister campaign against further austerity.  And the market still had to gap-down this morning as if it was a huge surprise?  Really?  The fact that the market was bouncing off last year close today instead of dropping below it can only mean two things:

  • – the market simply wants this Greece thing to be over so it can continue to rally higher
  • – the market is waiting for the final final final Greece answer before collapsing a thousand points or more if Greece is to exit the EuroZone.

I read that July 20 is another deadline for payment by Greece; so I guess we will have another month of volatility.  If last year closing price can act as support b/w now and Greece’s final result, I believe scenario one may be in the card; however, if price penetrates last year close before Greece’s final result, scenario two may show its ugly head…

SPY_Daily

Looking at the chart above you get a sense that last year close can be a powerful support.

What’s a nice surprise, $ONCY gapped up at the open due to positive phase II result in their clinical study in pancreatic cancer:

“These data suggest that this drug combination can increase median overall survival, as well as generate an approximate two-fold increase in one-year survival rates, and a five-fold increase in two-year survival rates when compared to gemcitabine therapy alone as seen in historical data,” said Dr. Matt Coffey, COO of Oncolytics. “The observation of clear overall survival (OS) benefit combined with apparent limited impact on progression free survival (PFS) is increasingly becoming characteristic of immune-based therapeutic treatments. We are incorporating this finding into both our new and existing studies to ensure we follow OS where possible.”

Seeing such positive result, I can only deduct that their other clinical studies will show similar positive results as well.  Thus, I began to increase my stake in $ONCY.  By day close, I’ve doubled down on my bet with $ONCY.

ONCY_daily

While price gave back some gain after the morning gap-up, I believe the rally has only just begun and I’m looking for a break out of the daily 79 & 89 resistances this week.  I believe price will continue to rally if there are further release of positive clinical results coming thru the news wire in the near future.

Due to my need to raise cash to buy more $ONCY, I peeled off some more $AMRN to do so.  I also didn’t want to hold too large of a position for the oral argument tomorrow.  Not that I don’t think Amarin has a strong case, but I have to spread my risk around when I found other stock with a similar risk/reward benefit.

AMRN_daily

The good news is that price is still above the 5 & 15 MA supports.  At the moment, both $AMRN and $ONCY are very close in investment size. I’m curious to see which one will actually perform better in the coming weeks.

$BIOC were down again today but it did recover nicely to form a small hammer candlestick bar.

BIOC_daily

I like the fact that price bounced off the uptrend line as well as the $2.51 support line.  Since I like the fundamental story behind this stock so much, I bought back the shares I sold last Thursday to bring it back to full-size position.

$AKAO tried to go up but failed; yet price is still above the uptrend.

AKAO_daily

Perhaps tomorrow it will stick to the wall when it rallies again

Both $LRAD and $RBY dripped slightly lower but still above supports so I’m not going to put up charts.

Thanks to rally from $ONCY, it was able to cushion drawdown from the rest of the stocks to reduce today losses to 0.3%.  YTD gain is now at 4.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, BIOC, AMRN, ONCY, RBY, AKAO and 4.2% cash.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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