Well, it was quite a volatile week with a DJIA 350+ drop on Monday and the ensuing “dead cat bounce?” to make the week a down but not yet decisive due to a spinning top bar (sibling of doji bar) on the weekly chart berlow. From the fear of Greece loan default (which actually happened) and now the Greece’s referendum. Since I’m a betting man, I’m betting the Greece will vote for the lesser evil- austerity with known pain over uncertainty of unknown pain of being on its own without the benevolence of its Euro-elder siblings. The referendum allows the voice of people in Greece to be heard.
I give it a 0.1% edge over the 50/50 probability that market will rip higher on Monday and bury the proverbial cat once and for all. And the party may continue unabated…. Of course, I could look like a fool when the market dropped… Ha! The secret of life, from my limited understanding from the time spent here, is that once we’ve accepted what a fool we all are from time to time, life becomes more interesting. Sure, I’m a fool for posting my daily trading journal here at the web for all to see, but it also help me keep my focus on my investment. Sometimes, being a fool is the only way to break out of our comfort zone and push us to the next level. Oop, I’m off the topic. Let’s get back to my port.
I added $ONCY to my port today ’cause the chart looks like it is bottoming and I like the fundamental story behind it. Hear this, they are using a specialized virus programmed to attack only cancerous cells in our body. “Whoa! Doc! What did you say? Injecting killer virus into my body? Are you kidding me?” That is what I thought too… “Don’t worry, the virus only attack your cancerous cells” And that is what $ONCY is trying to prove with its Phase III trial. Now, are you ready? The fact that $ONCY’s REOLYSIN passed Phase I and II meant that its virus therapeutic is safe. Now, Phase III will determine if the virus-therapy can actually remove cancer cells. If it works, watch out! An excerpt from $ONCY’s webpage provided a better explanation than I could:
REOLYSIN® is a proprietary variant of the reovirus, an acronym for Respiratory Enteric Orphan Virus, which is widely found in the environment. By adulthood, most people have been exposed to the reovirus. The reovirus is non-pathogenic, which means that infections are typically asymptomatic. In clinical trials, REOLYSIN® has been shown to be well-tolerated, with patients exhibiting only mild, flu-like symptoms. REOLYSIN® has been used alone and in combination with chemotherapy and radiotherapy for various cancers, including head and neck cancers in an ongoing Phase III clinical trial.
On the other hand, I’ve no clue why the stock has been trending down since early second quarter of 2013. However, from the weekly chart above, you can see that the price has formed a base around 40 cents. If price can bounce off this week first green bar (after 5 consecutive weekly red bars), we may be seeing a bottom here. If Phase III is positive, lo and behold! Risk/reward at this level is tremendous. I’m just lucky to be finding out about this stock with price the way it is now. Even as a risk of Phase III’s failure, the risk/reward at this point of the bottoming pattern is just too good to miss out. Unfortunately, I had to peel off some $LRAD (already over-sized position) to get the fund to buy $ONCY.
$AMRN is looking good here. Next Tuesday will be oral argument in the 1st Amendment lawsuit.
As you can see on the weekly chart above, we are just a stone throw away from breaking out of the downtrend line to the upside and away from the 79 & 89 support. Despite the potential, I peeled off ~10% of my position to prepare for the effect of Greece’s referendum this weekend. If price drops on Monday due to initial reaction, I may use the cash to add back cheaper.
$BIOC formed a weekly green bar after three consecutive red one.
The range of this week was quite wide. But I can see better price ahead once Biocept begins to execute their “plans to introduce CLIA-validated tests for colorectal, prostate and other solid tumors in the near term.” I also peeled off ~10% of my position to prepare for the effect of Greece’s referendum this weekend.
While down on $AKAO, I still like the fact that price is still above the incline up slope trend line.
I’ll be holding this one as long as price is above the upward trendline.
Although $RBY were down the last six trading weeks, the long-term trend since Nov of last year is still an uptrend. I can see high $0.9x being the support from the trendline.
A bounce from here may maintain the uptrend line to support the potential bottoming of gold. I’ll be holding my $RBY for awhile.
$LRAD tried to go up today but was sold off quickly by someone. No, not me. I only peeled off when price was back down to $2.05 – $2.07. I tell you, I was concerned my selling might drop the price further, but there were support there. It wasn’t showing on the bids but there were buyers for my shares. And I was thrilled to see that. Best of both worlds, I did not affect price negatively and I got to get the fund to buy $ONCY.
While a weekly red bar, we may still see a potential bottom at the Fib 61.8% retracement level which happen to be a very popular support level.
Due to drawdown from $LRAD and $BIOC, my port gave back 1% for the day. YTD gain is now at 5.1%.
LRAD, BIOC, AMRN, ONCY, RBY, AKAO and 9.5% cash.
My 2 cents.
Happy July 4th!
Categories: Daily trading Journal