06-12-2015 Journal- $LRAD, $AMRN, $BIOC, $CERS

Apparently the bear did not hit the sweet spot whacking the shuttlecock, therefore the force of the downward momentum was mediocre and the shuttlecock tripped over the net and lost even more energy.

SPY_Daily

Thanks to the daily 79 MA support, the bear was not able to do more damage.

On the other hand, we have a weekly long-tailed doji bar at the support of the uptrend line.

SPY_Weekly

The probability of a bounce from here is better than 50/50; however, since this is a weekly bar, the bounce (if any) may happen inside the week and not necessary the early part of the week.  Fundamentally speaking, announcement from the central bank next Wednesday regarding its decision on the timing of interest rate increase will decide the final fate of next week bar.

$AMRN continued to be the hero of the day by moving higher.  From the weekly perspective, it did a great job recovering from the downdraft in the early part of the week and closed the week slightly higher.

AMRN_weekly

Although it was not a strong weekly close, it is still a positive green weekly bar that closed above all MAs except the 89 XMA which is not too far away.  Notice the weekly momentum indicators below are also turning up.  Thus, I see the continuing momentum to the upside is better than 50/50.  Fundamentally speaking, there were amicus curiae briefs submitted to the court in support of $AMRN first amendment lawsuit against the FDA.  Both PhRMA’s (The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America) and WLF’s (Washington Legal Foundation) amicus curiae are a good read.  After reading them, the implication is that the FDA thinks doctors are idiots who could easily be misled by truthful and non-misleading information provided by Amarin for off-label use and thus provide subpar medical advice.  What even more ironic is that the FDA indirectly accepted the assumption that the consumers are smarter than the doctors ’cause the over-the-counter fish-oil supplements (with less stringent FDA guideline than prescription grade drug and possibly more harmful dose of DHA) are allowed to have the label expansion Amarin is seeking for.  With PhRMA and WLF on board to support the 1st Amendment lawsuit, I can see the wind is shifting in favor of Amarin.

$CERS closed the week as a doji bar.

CERS_weekly

Since the doji is not “at” the resistance of $5.68 but is $0.20 below, I see this as a possible “rest” before continuation of an upward momentum. Next week bar will provide better clue to the overall direction.  Notice that in late February, price came down after a doji bar; but that was because price was coming from the high of $7 whereas this time around, price is climbing from the low of $4. So it is my 2 cents that the “rest” theory still works in favor of current uptrend momentum simply because the fundamental news of a American Red Cross chief medical officer joining $CERS as chief medical officer in July is not something to scoff at.

$BIOC did not fair too well this week.

BIOC_weekly

Price is on the verge of breaking down from the symmetrical triangle.  The good news is that price is still support by the weekly 79 & 89 MA supports.  As I mentioned before, I like the fundamental story of liquid biopsy and truly believe it will become an integral part of future cancer diagnosis tool.  I believe current price weakness may have to do with the recent secondary offering where cheap warrants were being unloaded to lock in profit.  Once that profit-taking is played out, price can then begin a slow climb up.  Now the battle of conviction against price volatility begins.

$LRAD had a bad week.

LRAD_weekly

While price broke thru the 79 & 89 supports, it is now being support by the uptrend line.  A closer look revealed that the CEO had sold some shares after exercising options that are expiring on 06/15/2015.  I’m more inclined to believe that his recent action had more to do with his exercising the options before expiration and less to do with the fundamental of the company business plan.  Due to $LRAD being a low volume stock, his action, unfortunately, freaked out some traders and did not bode well for a technical reading of the chart.  With 06/15/2015 being on Monday, price may bounce back up next week if there is no more nervous selling.  For those who has not “heard” the clarity of the mass notification system offered by $LRAD, I suggest you go to their website and check out their video demo under the “Mass Notification/PA Systems” tab. Of course, I’m still holding long and strong.

Thanks to rally from $AMRN, my port was able to squeeze out a gain of 0.30% for the day despite downdraft from $BIOC and $LRAD.  YTD gain is now at 11.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, AMRN, BIOC, CERS and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , ,

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