For the week, the bear won; but for the month, “what ‘sell in May and go away’ are you talking about ’cause I’m seeing a green bar here?”
Although it is a green monthly bar on the monthly chart above, you can see that it is a weak green bar. It makes you want to ask if the bull is getting tired here. “Hey bull, are you ok? Can you keep going from here? Do you want some weed to eat… Oop, I mean grass?” I think June is a telling month for the future direction of the market. Right now, the bull has a 5 MA line as monthly support, 15 MA line as a weekly support, and 79 & 89 MA lines as daily support. If these supports hold, the bull can probably hang around here or make some reluctant new highs before the reality of interest rate increase hits home.
For now, I’m focusing my money on stocks that rely heavily on fundamental news (ground-breaking- $LRAD, $AMRN, paradigm shifting- $BIOC, $CERS, or raw material shortage- $UEC) to drive the stocks in my port.
When the market opened, I added more $AMRN. But price could not hold and went under water. Seeing lower price, I sold some $LEU to buy more. With the denial of 5 years exclusivity from NCE (new chemical entity) status by FDA vacated by the Federal judge, this open the door for a possible buy-out from BP. A few years ago, it was too risky for BP to pay dearly for a company without knowing if it will get a 5 years exclusivity. Now with the 5 years in sight, BPs can punch numbers into their spreadsheet and calculate how much more they can make in those extra years before they have to worry about fighting the generic drugs manufacturers for patents infringement.
From the monthly $AMRN chart above, we have two resting bars after the big jump in March. May green bar countered the bear momentum from the April red bar. Notice that the Bollinger bands narrowed significantly in May which open the possibility of a breakout soon. With a green May bar, the odd shifted slightly in favor of an upside breakout. I may buy more $AMRN Monday.
Price also closed above the previous high of $2.93. The chart looks good for a continuing uptrend that I sold the rest of $LEU to buy more $UEC. After all, $UEC is moving up while $LEU is not.
While $CERS candlestick bar today doesn’t look too bullish with a long-tail on the upside, the monthly chart below shows a different picture.
May became the second month with a green bar after price bounced off the uptrend line in April. Another green bar in June will confirm a V-shape bounce.
From the monthly perspective, it is a green bar and while not a strong one, it does give a slightly better probability of a continuing upside move. I was tempted to unload some this morning but I reminded myself to remember the lesson from $CERS which is, “if you believe in the fundamental story of the stock, don’t let the short-term volatility changes your conviction of the stock.”
$LRAD did not have a good month. It was the only stock in my port that has a red bar for the month.
However, I take comfort that price is still on top of the monthly 79 & 89 MA support lines. It is important that $LRAD wins the Middle East businesses in their mass notification systems and report it in June; otherwise, price may struggle from here unless there are other solid sales outside the Middle East deals.
Due to the drop in $LRAD and $BIOC today, my port gave back 1.7% despite gains on $UEC. YTD gain is now at 13.7%.
LRAD, AMRN, UEC, BIOC, CERS and 6% cash.
My 2 cents.
Categories: Daily trading Journal