Ho ho! On Friday journal, I was just dropping the idea that the market needed to drop 400+ points this week in order to validate the “Sell in May and go away” thesis. Lo and behold! Market closed the day down 190 points. This would give the market another three trading days to gather another 210+ down points to turn the current green monthly bar into a red bar. But even then, a small red bar in a monthly chart could hardly support a “Sell in May and go away” thesis. The fact that May was picked as the month for this popular belief means that it is “supposed” to be a BIG down month. Thus, I’m modifying my statement to say that in order to validate the “Sell in May and go away” thesis, market has to drop another 600+ to reflect a decent mid-size red bar in a monthly chart. Otherwise, what’s the whole point of saying “sell in May and go away”? I know, I’ve been repeating this “Sell in May and go away” in this paragraph so many times already. Pardon me on this.
Did you see how price bounced off the 79 MA line? Magical! Will it hold tomorrow? If it does, forget “Sell in May and go away”, this popular belief is simply at best a 50% proposition. In other words, it is no better than flipping coin. But wait, May is not over yet until Friday close. Let’s see then…
Could I be more wrong about buying precious metals as a hedge against a market correction! While I was correct about market correction today, I was totally off on the precious metals. When my $ABX, $SLW, and $NUGT positions were barely hanging on to the supports on Friday, it was a red flag for today follow thru. Too bad I didn’t pay heed to it then. I sold them all at the open to cut losses immediately. I didn’t even consider the possibility of a bounce since the U.S. dollar was quite strong at the open.
Seeing that the market was down, I added to $TZA.
Price closed right at the 15 MA resistance. The 79 & 89 MA resistances above are much harder to overcome; therefore, it would be interesting to see how this week play out.
I like $UEC and wanted to get back in after my recent profit-taking at $2.7x. Seeing support at the 15 MA line and the Fib 50% correction on recent uptrend, I decided to buy back some $UEC betting the supports mentioned will hold.
By looking at the monthly chart below, my gut feeling tells me that price isn’t going back down below the monthly 79 & 89 MA lines.
This monthly bar, while not complete yet, looks like a nail on the table- very solid and stable. And this is why I trust the support will hold; hence my adding more before closing bell.
I was looking for $CERS to head lower so I can add more cheaper; but price refused to drop further. So, I figured I could wait until tomorrow for lower price. Surprisingly, price surged powerfully with huge volume in the last 20 minutes before the bell. Figuring that someone knew something, thought of buying cheap shares flew out the window and I immediately started to add more to build up size. By closing bell, I accumulated a mid-size position.
Look at that strong rally with super-high volume at the end of the day in the 5 min. chart above. Does it mean someone REALLY knows something? Who knows… but I never shy away from a strong momentum and it is always a good bet to follow such strong sudden force of buying.
From the $CERS daily chart above, today green bar looks good for a possible bottom.
$AKAO also corrected a bit after last Friday big run-up. I expected the correction so I paid no heed to it.
The more I read about the fundamental story behind $AKAO, the more conviction I’ve for holding it.
$LEU was holding well despite a big down day.
I’m wondering if I should get some more. Fundamentally speaking, the U.S. needs to have its own uranium enrichment facility operating in its own territory and not relying on other countries for uranium enrichment. So, for national security reason, it makes sense to fire up $LEU to get the centrifugal project going again. I think I just talked myself into buying more…
$LRAD corrected along with others for the day.
Price fell back inside the consolidation range.
Naturally, with losses from $ABK, $SLW, $NUGT and drawdown from $LRAD, my port gave back 1.9% despite my gain on $TZA. YTD gain is now at 13.4%.
LRAD, CERS, AKAO, TZA, LEU, UEC and 29% cash.
My 2 cents.
Categories: Daily trading Journal