05-08-2015 Journal- $LRAD, $CERS, $LEU, $UEC, $DMRC, $AMRN

What do you know, the market rocketed higher after the open and defended its ground on the stratosphere all day that was required to transform this week candlestick from a red bar into a green and it did just that!  Kudos to the bull.  Yeah!

DJ-30 weekly

Now, that is one good looking green bar on the weekly chart above. However, it still falls short of closing higher than the March 27th high.  At this point, the bull can simply walk right pass it next week and go on to make new high.  The bear has one last chance to prevent the bull from doing so in order to keep the 2nd lower pivot high intact.  From the look of the chart, the bear most likely would lose the battle.

$AMRN earnings was less than stellar and price opened lower.  Giving all the headwind from the FDA negative decisions against Amarin which included the recent CRL from FDA denying the label expansion without any compromise expected by investors, the only way price will maintain an upward momentum is quarter to quarter revenues/earning growth leading to the Reduce-it trial result; thus I wasn’t surprised price opened lower with an under-performing quarter.  Needless to say, I sold at the open to cut losses.

AMRN_weekly

From the weekly chart above, $AMRN broke below the 15 MA support; however, there is still one more support at the 79 MA line below.  The conference call also warned that the search for licensing deals outside the U.S. market is still an on going process and may take some times to come to fruition. They are looking for the “right” partner instead of taking the first offer that comes around. I was surprised to hear that the deal with China took almost four years to complete since their first meeting at the JP Morgan conference.  Thus, traders looking for a quick run with the prospect of more licensing deals coming soon are not going to hang around waiting.  I will be looking for opportunity to buy back some $AMRN once price has settled down some.

$LRAD suffered the same fate as traders bailed out due to an under-performing quarter.  However, lumpy quarterly earnings have been part of $LRAD reporting pattern due to the majority of their customers being a part of government bureaucracy.  To me, the annual growth is more important than quarterly growth and I can see the prospect of them getting more sales in the 3rd and 4th quarter of their fiscal year. The most important news I wanted to hear in the conference call is that they haven’t lost the Middle East mass notification sales to their competitors.  It is still on-going and they haven’t demonstrated their technology to the decision makers as of yet due to custom issue that prevented them from doing so in March.  So, a surprise win b/w now and 3rd fiscal quarter ending is still a potential catalyst to drive this stock up.  Regardless, it is my opinion that there is a long-term growth in this stock and it is the “timing” of the growth that traders are frustrated with.

LRAD_weekly

Despite a disappointing quarter, price is still above the weekly 79 & 89 MA support line.  As seen on the weekly chart above, price fell back into the consolidation range.  The overall trend is still up.  I’m betting that traders may start to come back by the end of the month in anticipating of $LRAD nailing the demo in the Middle East city to win the bid.

$CERS opened higher and I wanted to add more.  To do so, I decided to sell $KGJI because  I was quite disappointed that I did not see any meaningful bounce from the 23% drop last Friday on no news.  Even the recent news regarding online presence at Alibaba’s TMall.com, which to me represented that business is as usual, failed to achieve a bounce.  Thus, it was an easy decision to take my losses and moved on.  On the other hands, I could sense an undercurrent demand for $CERS shares; so selling $KGJI to add more $CERS was a no-brainer decision.

CERS_weekly

$CERS ended the week with green bar on the weekly chart above.  There is still some resistance from above, mainly the 79 & 89 MA lines.  This week bar bounced off the 5 MA line which is a good start.  Somehow, I’m sensing that price is going to take out these resistance in the coming weeks.  Because this is a heavily shorted stock, any positive news will spark a panic run from the shorts.  Actually, even a slow climb from more investors coming in will eventually trigger a short-squeeze when the bear can longer fight the uptrend.  There is always a tipping point for the short to bail. Be prepared to listen to garbage spilled by the shorts at the message boards.  Btw, take a look at $CLDX, stock price is at a phenomenal 618.7 times ttm sales all due to investors believing in the potential of its cancer drug..  All it takes is that investors start to believe that the FDA guidance on pathogen reduction on domestic blood supply to be released later will benefit $CERS and the price will start to mimic $CLDX climb.  I’m going to stop trading $CERS and just sit on this stock for the ride thru the coming volatility.

Both $LEU and $UEC had a good week in that they were able to maintain a green weekly bar.

LEU_weekly

$LEU bounced off the 5 MA support in the weekly chart above.  Overall trend is still up.

UEC_weekly

$UEC recovered nicely from a correction and ended the week with a long-tail doji weekly bar.  Despite a lower weekly volume, the bull was able to fight off the bear easily.

$DMRC also had a good week.

DMRC_weekly

This week green bar reversed last week negative momentum.  Overall trend remains on the uptrend direction as this week price closed above the middle Andrew Pitchfork line.

Thanks to rallies from $CERS, $LEU, $UEC, and $DMRC, the gains were able to reduce losses from $LRAD, $AMRN, and $KGJI to 1.9% for the day.  YTD gain is now at 13.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, CERS, LEU, UEC, DMRC and 13% cash.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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