04-17-2015 Journal- $LRAD, $NUGT, $SPXU, $AMRN, $CERS

Today is further evidence that a doji candlestick bar at major resistance and support has an “observable” edge for calling a top in the former and a bottom for the latter.  While it is not 100%, it does provide an opportunity to sell the “top” or buy the “bottom” with a tight stop near the resistance and the support respectively. In other words, it provides a favorable win/loss ratio.

DJ-30 daily

You can pretty much say the today down bar semi-confirmed that yesterday bar could become the 3rd lower pivot high.  Once price took out the support (red line) below, this 3rd pivot lower high will be confirmed.  Meanwhile, price found support at the daily 79 & 89 MA lines today.  Will it hold next week?  I think it depends on how the world digests the coming Greece drama.  My bet is that the situation will get worse and further correction may ensue; thus, I’m still holding the $SPXU and $NUGT I bought back this morning for the weekend.

SPXU_daily

From the above daily chart, does the Newton’s 1st law of motion apply to $SPXU bounce today?  Stay tune for Monday open.

Due to my overall bearish sentiment, I sold $CERS in the morning to raise cash.  $CERS, being a heavily shorted stock, will fall easily in a broad sell-off.

CERS_weekly

Despite the sell-off today, this week still ended with a green bar to confirm the possibility that the last week doji bar might be the bottom.  Thus, if there is no broad sell-off next week in the general market, I may buy back some.

While $NUGT closed neutral today despite a false start at the open, the weekly chart below seems to show a steady recovering from a base.  It is zigzagging up on a weekly basis.

NUGT_weekly

Thus, while taking heat from buying in too early (hindsight speaking) in the morning, I elected to hold on to my position to follow the weekly, albeit slow, upward pattern.

Near the closing bell, I decided to buy back a starter position on $AMRN due to two factors:

  1. Weekly prescription continued to improve while at eleven thousand units;
  2. Weekly bar (see weekly chart below) is now at the support near the Fib 38.2% retracement and the incline trend line generated by 2nd half of 2014 (blue up-slope line).  I give credit to framus_morrigan who showed this trend line at Stocktwits $AMRN stream.

AMRN_weekly

If price bounces next week, I’ll look to add back more.

Despite a minor correction today, $LRAD weekly bar continued to inch higher.

LRAD_weekly

I feel that even if the world becomes more chaotic due to possible domino effect from Greece rebellious stance, it is going to need the non-lethal crowd control equipment offered by $LRAD.

Due to taking losses from $CERS and drawdown from $LRAD and $NUGT, my port gave back 2.2% for the day.  YTD gain is now at 17.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SPXU, NUGT, AMRN and 29% cash.

My 2 cents.

Btw, I’m still holding $ARTH from my other account.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: , , , , ,

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