Out of the bushes jumped the big bad bear growling with a menacing I-am-gonna-get-you look. The farmers scattered all over and the bull went back the other way which was the wrong way…
If the bear has its way tomorrow, we may have a possible 3rd lower pivot high. If during the week the DOW drops below March 26th low, we will have confirmation of a 3rd lower pivot high. This slow systematic lower-pivot-high stair-step formation may be the subtle clue of a coming major correction. Nevertheless, the bull still has a chance to throw a wrench into the bear systematic attack by rallying hard to take out the 2nd lower pivot high established on March 23rd BEFORE the 3rd lower pivot high is confirmed. This is a week to watch the DOW in a more critical manner.
Today I jumped into $NUGT looking for a symmetrical triangle breakout to the upside.
Although the breakout hasn’t happened yet, I made an aggressive bet based on the fact that price is on the top portion of the triangle.
$PLAB is a new position I opened today. Fundamentally speaking, I believe the semiconductor sector will soon take another major shift in circuits designs such that more photomasks are required. From Yahoo Profile:
“Photomasks are high precision photographic quartz plates containing microscopic images of electronic circuits. It offers photomasks for the use in the manufacture of semiconductors and flat panel displays (FPDs), as well as for use as masters to transfer circuit patterns onto semiconductor wafers and flat panel substrates during the fabrication of integrated circuits, FPDs, and other types of electrical and optical components. The company sells and markets its products to semiconductor designers, manufacturers, and foundries, as well as to other high performance electronics manufacturers primarily through its sales personnel and customer service representatives. It also operates in Korea, Taiwan, Europe, and internationally.”
From the monthly chart above, $PLAB has been trading in a consolidation range of $8 to $9.2x for the last two years. A breakout to the upside can kick off a long-term uptrend from here. Hence, I’m jumping the gun again by buying now giving price is trading at the upper 2015 range on the daily chart (below):
$CERS bounced hard today.
What I like about today bounce is that a lot of buying came in to drive the price back up in the last fifteen minutes before closing bell. Giving the last minutes strong rally, I added more $CERS to join the buying crowd.
$AMRN took a break with a red bar. In need of cash to add to $CERS and to jump back in $SPXU, I sold some $AMRN.
While today red bar may not mean much, it is important that $AMRN maintain the upward momentum to stay inside the uptrend pitchfork lines. I’ll continue to reduce position size if price continue to head lower.
Although I got out of $SPXU in the morning, the negative DOW at the last hour made me jump back into the position.
Today green bar could become a bottom if it bounces from here. I believe we may be looking at the triple-bottom here.
$LRAD green bar today was a sight for sore eyes after three red bars.
Price bounced off the 15 MA line which was a good sign.
Thanks to rally from $CERS, $LRAD, and $PLAB, the gains were able to offset drawdowns from $AMRN and $NUGT; my port squeezed out 0.20% for the day. YTD gain is now at 17.5%.
LRAD, AMRN, CERS, PLAB, SPXU, NUGT and 8% cash.
My 2 cents.
Categories: Daily trading Journal