03-06-2015 Journal- $AMRN leading

The bear finally got traction and pushed the bull down several flight of stairs.  It wasn’t pretty.

DJ-30 daily

The bright spot in the chart is that support from the 79 & 89 MA lines.  These are powerful supports and we will see if it will defend the bear attack next week.

From the weekly chart below:

DJ-30 weekly

As it turned out, last week doji was confirmed as a topping warning for now.  It was basically confirmed after Friday meltdown.  Notice that the strong support of 79 & 89 MA lines are way below current pricing on the weekly chart.  The short-term support is the 15 MA line which happen to be the 79 & 89 MA lines on the daily chart.  These supports on two different time frames may be able to defend the bear attack next week.

The irony of my port is that while the DOW was up recently, my port would be going thru minor corrections; today with the DOW down almost 300 points, my port actually went up- thanks to $AMRN and $LRAD.

$AMRN was the big surprise today.  The day opened with an announcement that spelled dilution.  A $52.8 million dollar private placement to existing and new institutional investors.  As expected, price gapped down but surprisingly tepid.  Then price started to climb back up to breakeven.  Having seen the comeback, I began to cut losses on some of my $CERS position and used the proceed to add more $AMRN despite an already large size.  Again, the rationale is easy, $AMRN upward momentum is strong while $CERS is fighting to stay afloat.  A strong day like this for $AMRN means people are beginning to believe the underlying value of Vascepa and its pure EPA ingredient. You don’t get somebody to pay you $15 million nonrefundable upfront money and a guaranteed 160+ million milestone payments if they don’t believe in the pure EPA ingredients and its multiple benefits to our human organs.  And now, the investors are believers too.

I believe $AMRN, giving the years of suppression by the FDA, has not only proven itself to be holding a very valuable commodity (patented EPA ingredient) but also gained the attention of the medical community with the positive results of health benefits from multiple independent studies of pure EPA supported by Amarin.   With Reduce-it trials mid-term result coming in mid-2016 and the positive expectation due to success of the previous similar Japanese trial called the Jelis Studies, the potential value of Vascepa is unparalleled and the monetary value will be in billions.  Simply because Vascepa may become the standard care for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Another factor that allows $AMRN to bounce back from its suppression to $1 is the issue of funding the Reduce-it trial.  It is this particular concern that the bear was able to beat $AMRN price down so successfully.  With the recent $15 million non-refundable deposit and today $52.8 million private placement, the funding problem disappeared instantly and the focus is now back to the positive impact of Vascepa on our most important human organ- the heart.

AMRN_weekly

The weekly chart showed that price penetrated the resistance and closed above it.  Now, the next target is Sept high of last year at $2.09.

I believe that $AMRN has finally got the traction to move quickly ahead not only on its price uptrend but also the attention of the doctors writing Vascepa prescriptions.  Eventually, even the FDA has to come around in the face of positive results.  After adding more $AMRN share today, it is now the largest position in my port.

$LRAD is now the 2nd largest position.  I still believe in this stock ’cause its mass notification system technology is needed worldwide and it’s is just a matter of convincing the city planners that their technology is the best out there.

LRAD_daily

Price closed above the lower Andrew Pitchfork uptrend line despite a down week.  There is nothing to do but wait for news.

$TINY corrected after a strong previous week.  While the prospective fundamental is strong, price simply went up too high too fast.

TINY_weekly

Unfortunately, price fell back below the support.  The good news is that price is still above the 79 & 89 MA weekly support.

$CERS did not have a good week and price continued to head south.  Thus, I’d no choice but to peel off more shares to take my losses and moved the proceed to $AMRN which is going up.  In time, the gain from $AMRN will return the losses I took in $CERS.

CERS_weekly

Price penetrated the weekly short-term uptrend line and that is not a good sign.  My position size on $CERS is now relatively small compared to the other three positions.  Not too long ago, $CERS was the 2nd largest position.  When fundamental and/or technical of the stock I invested in shifted, its position size in my port also shifted.

Thanks to gain from $AMRN and $LRAD, my port gained back 1.7% for the day and my YTD losses is narrowed to 1.7%.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, TINY, CERS (100% invested/speculated).

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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