03-05-2015 Journal- some thought on $AMRN

Another pause to stop the bear momentum in the DJIA.  Despite a tepid bounce, it did the job to stop the slide.

DJ-30 daily

Since price is still far away from the support line, the bull is basically still in charge.

All my positions in my port were going thru minor corrections.  It is to be expected.

$AMRN had gone up quite drastically in a month time from a $1 to $1.67.  That is 67% increase.  So I wouldn’t be surprised that there were enough people selling to take profit that kept price from moving higher today.  But when more people begin to understand the power of pure EPA and its positive impact on cardiovascular health despite FDA refusal to acknowledge it without the completion of Reduce-It trial, price will continue to climb back up.  This is simply way too undervalued at this price point if the Reduce-It trial is to be successful in its outcome.  Below is an excerpt from the recent earnings transcript:

The number of people with high triglyceride levels is comparable to the number of people with high cholesterol. Statin is a proven therapy we’re not trying to replace statin rather we envision Vascepa as being the ideal add-on therapy to statin. Statin therapy is demonstrating the ability in patients with high cholesterol levels to reduce cardiovascular risk by approximately one-third. The JELIS study was a large controlled coronary outcome study conducted in Japan, which administered EPA the active ingredients in Vascepa on top of statin therapy in patients with elevated cholesterol levels. In comparison to statin monotherapy, the addition of EPA to statin resulted in a further 19% reduction in major coronary events, such as sudden cardiac death and heart attack.

In a subgroup analysis of patients with elevated triglyceride levels and low EPA cholesterol and even more substantial 53% reduction in major coronary events was observed compared to statin’s alone. We don’t need Vascepa to lower cardiovascular events by 53% to be successful in REDUCE-IT and we now have the published differences between JELIS and REDUCE-IT still the JELIS study highlights the potential therapeutic power of EPA. Also in JELIS note that while patients were studied for five years, there was a significant slip between the active and control arm of the study that occurred at an average of less than a year and a half of patient treatment.

The Japanese Jelis study pretty much extrapolates the success of the Reduce-It trial based on its similar study design and the use of pure EPA..  It is my opinion that it is in the best interest of the Big Pharmaceutical companies to start bidding for the company instead of waiting for the completion of the Reduce-it trial ’cause once the trial is deemed successful, Amarin will become the next Big Pharmaceutical company on its own right.  This is just my 2 cents of course.


Look at the steep upward slope of the price trend.

$CERS is still holding ground at the uptrend line.


Everyone is watching everyone.  I believe another blood bank sign-up may just be the catalyst to start the frenzy buying again and the shorts scrambling to cover.

$TINY is still forming the handle in the cup & handle pattern.


It is important that price doesn’t drop back below support.

$LRAD is settling down on the lower Andrew Pitchfork line.


There may be a bounce coming.  Now, if the CEO can come back from the MIddle East sales call with a win on the business, the bounce will be huge.

Due to all four stocks taking a little tumble, my port gave back 0.8% for the day.  YTD losses is now at 3.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, AMRN, TINY, CERS (100% invested/speculated).

My 2 cents.

Categories: Daily trading Journal

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