02-20-2015 Journal- $CERS leading

Mission accomplished!  The bull made new high today!

DJ-30 weekly

From the weekly chart above, the Dow Jones finally broke thru the resistance and closed the week above the resistance.  Yay!

Today, I restructured my portfolio.  Ironically, both $DMRC and $AMRN, while leading yesterday, were sent to the pasture.  Let me explain…

$DMRC opened with sellers exiting the door pronto.  I didn’t pay heed to the selling at first when it had dropped over a dollar and then bounced some.  But the bounce could not hold, more selling ensued and price dropped over two dollars and then bounced some again.  Then I noticed that were plenty of bids popping up in the low $27.xx.

“Here is your chance to unload and stand by the sideline to take a break,” I told myself.

Before I started to sell, I rationalized that the selling occurred ’cause there were no “new” clients being announced in the earnings update.  Basically, there were no new information asides from what we learned from the Jan 2015 Big Retail show.  All Bruce talked about in the earnings update was to emphasize the need to get new clients.  The main focus in 2015 is to procure new clients.  I’ve no doubt new clients will be forthcoming but I also realize that this is going to be a slow process.  So slow that there may not be any announcements until we hear something on the next quarterly update.  Meanwhile, impatient investors may start to unload.  With low liquidity and volume, it won’t take much to hammer the price. And I don’t want to tie up my money in draw-down mode waiting for another quarter. I’d already done that after last year Q2 earnings update.  Seeing the bids were there for me to unload above $27.xx, I decided to take it.  At first, I unloaded 70% of my position. Later, I decided to sell the rest to raise more cash.  I know I’m taking a risk that $DMRC would take off without me here; but when I recalled listening to the webcast , the enthusiasm in Bruce’s voice was lacking.  On top of that, Bruce had been selling his shares every month.  So, I decided to cut my losses and exited.  My average price was above $30.00.  Thinking about it, it was a godsend price shot up yesterday in anticipation of good news; otherwise, today drop would take $DMRC below $25.00.

DMRC_weekly

From the weekly chart above, this week red bar showed indifference.  While price is still above the 79 & 89 support, my concern was that once price penetrated the symmetrical triangle to the downside, it would also take out the 79 & 89 support as well.  A penetration of two supports would take price back down to the low $20.  Thus, I’ll hold my cash position to wait for opportunity to buy $DMRC back at lower price from here (if I could).  While I still believe in $DMRC’s business model, I’ve changed my investing approach from buy and hold to trading it

After I sold some $DMRC, I used the cash to buy more $AMRN.  Nevertheless, not long after I added, I began to regret.  The daily bar in the morning had narrow range and price action began to be defensive after hitting resistance at $1.50.  When price dropped back below $1.48, I decided to unload the shares I added just to be cautious.  And when price could not hold $1.43, I sold the rest of my position to protect profit from my last week entry point.

AMRN_daily

As you could see on the daily chart above, my fear was vindicated when price fell apart after it dropped below $1.40 support.  That red bearish engulfment candlestick chart was not a good sign.  If I had held on to my shares, I would have given back all profit since I added more near the top.  Nevertheless, I will be looking to buy some back at lower price if I could.

With proceed from sales of $DMRC, I also added to my $CERS position.

CERS_weekly

From the weekly chart above, this week is a doji bar.  What I like about the chart is that the 5 MA (blue solid line) is now approaching the 15 MA (brown solid line).  Statistically speaking, there is a likely chance that the 5 MA would bounce after touching the 15 MA line.  And I’m counting on this possible bounce to happen.  The other good news is that price is still trading above the 79 & 89 MA lines.  In summary, I expect to see price rallies next week as we approach Feb. 26th earnings update.

I also added to $TINY with the available cash.

TINY_weekly

While this week bar was also a doji bar and closed lower than last week, I like the fact that price had broken thru the downtrend line and is hovering above the 79 & 89 MA line.  I’m betting that price would take off next week since both the 5 and 15 MAs are pointing upward.  Not to mention that the momentum indicators below are also pointing upward as well.

$LRAD had an uneventful week due to lack of news on the Middle East mass notification sales.  Nevertheless, there are more than the Middle East sales we can expect from $LRAD, recent budget approval also open to possible large orders from the U.S. Army during the year.

LRAD_weekly

While price penetrated the mini-uptrend line to the downside, it is still above the lower Andrew Pitchfork line as well as way above the 79 & 89 support lines.

Due to $DMRC big down day, my port gave back 2.4% for the day.  YTD losses is now at 1.8%.  While my port has been fluctuating b/w minor losses and breakeven since 2015, I’m not worried about the current performance.  All it take is one of the three stocks to go ballistic and my port will make new high soon enough.  The operative word here is “when”.  When will the stock go ballistic?  This is what make investing and speculating so interesting and challenging!

Current holdings:

LRAD, CERS, TINY and 18% cash.

From my other account:

I added to $ARTH when price broke out of the $0.21 resistance.

ARTH_weekly

The weekly chart above looks very bullish for a continued bounce from here.  However, it needs to break out of the 79 MA resistance just right above it.

Currently holding $ARTH, $TRTC, and $VTCQ.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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