Market finally succumbed to bear pressure and closed down for the day.
Let’s see if the supports of the previous highs will hold. For the bull to continue to have leg. the supports from the 79 & 89 MA lines must hold.
Today, I was busted on my $AMRN play. Despite all the high cards in the deck and the high probability of the dealer busting (FDA change of heart), I was still busted. This can happen and will happen time after time whether you are a Blackjack card counter or a stock investor weighting in all the due diligence.
Although I lost, I only gave back all gain and an acceptable losses. In other words, the damage was not as bad and it was what I thought it would be if FDA denied. While I wasn’t happy with the outcome, I would be more upset if FDA said yes and I wasn’t invested. Thus, $AMRN was a worthy risk that didn’t work out. Moving on.
Btw, I sold all $AMRN at the open to close the chapter on this investment thesis. There are too many baggage for $AMRN to carry without the help of the label expansion from the SPA that was denied. The Reduce-It trial is expensive and the loan is still out there. Somehow, I’ve got a feeling that the FDA has decided they don’t care about the Reduce-It trial and they want $AMRN to kill it. The whole point of the original SPA agreement was that it would allow Amarin to fund the Reduce-It trial with the label expansion if the Anchor trial passed. Perhaps, the FDA wants the BP at the U.S. to buy out Amarin for a song so that all revenues generate will remain at the U.S.A. We are talking about protectionism at play here. Why didn’t I see this before?
Oh well. There is other possibility for Amarin to rise out of its current dilemma by finding a partner of its own choosing instead of being forced to accept the low ball offers from the U.S. BPs. If Amarin can persist to survive intact to complete the Reduce-It trial, a successful result will propel this company into multi-billion company in an instance. I’ll definitely keep an eye on this company and be ready to jump back in.
With the free cash after selling $AMRN, I added some $LRAD. I also added a bit more $ORBC. The reversal of fortune on $AMRN caused me to review my $HYGS holdings. I decided to reduce my over-exposed position giving its current mini-downtrend. I was fortunate to get out at breakeven.
$DMRC corrected some after two days of gains.
The above weekly chart shows a green bar at the bottom of the trend. There is a high probability a bounce is in the card. If it bounces from here, I may add some more with the free cash available.
$ORBC also exhibited a weekly green bar to close the week.
Any positive news on the operational status of the recently launched satellites will give this one nice pop and start an uptrend going.
$LRAD is still meandering around the consolidation area. Price is still on an uptrend line albeit the angle of the uptrend line has declined slightly.
The slight decline this week has been in low volume. What prompted me to add more $LRAD today was due to the fact that price did not go down despite a negative general market downturn. Let’s see if there is news next week to wake this one up again.
$HYGS was still struggling to find its bottom.
Although price is still within the 79 & 89 MA lines, I’m still holding too much position and I didn’t want to risk more drawdown after my port absorbed the $AMRN losses and gave back of gain. Thus, I sold down my position size to about half of original size. Also notice that price could not climb above the 5 MA line today.
Needless to day, my port gave back a whopping 3.7% for a failed thesis and YTD gain is now at 8%.
LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS and 13% cash.
From my other account:
I dumped my $AMRN $2 Jan 2015 call option for a song since I figured something is better than nothing if I continued to hold. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.
My 2 cents.
Categories: Daily trading Journal