09-12-2014 Trading Journal

Market finally succumbed to bear pressure and closed down for the day.

SPY_Daily

Let’s see if the supports of the previous highs will hold.  For the bull to continue to have leg. the supports from the 79 & 89 MA lines must hold.

Today, I was busted on my $AMRN play.  Despite all the high cards in the deck and the high probability of the dealer busting (FDA change of heart), I was still busted.  This can happen and will happen time after time whether you are a Blackjack card counter or a stock investor weighting in all the due diligence.

Although I lost, I only gave back all gain and an acceptable losses.  In other words, the damage was not as bad and it was what I thought it would be if FDA denied.  While I wasn’t happy with the outcome, I would be more upset if FDA said yes and I wasn’t invested.  Thus, $AMRN was a worthy risk that didn’t work out.  Moving on.

Btw, I sold all $AMRN at the open to close the chapter on this investment thesis.  There are too many baggage for $AMRN to carry without the help of the label expansion from the SPA that was denied.  The Reduce-It trial is expensive and the loan is still out there.  Somehow, I’ve got a feeling that the FDA has decided they don’t care about the Reduce-It trial and they want $AMRN to kill it.  The whole point of the original SPA agreement was that it would allow Amarin to fund the Reduce-It trial with the label expansion if the Anchor trial passed.  Perhaps, the FDA wants the BP at the U.S. to buy out Amarin for a song so that all revenues generate will remain at the U.S.A.  We are talking about protectionism at play here.  Why didn’t I see this before?

Oh well.  There is other possibility for Amarin to rise out of its current dilemma by finding a partner of its own choosing instead of being forced to accept the low ball offers from the U.S. BPs.  If Amarin can persist to survive intact to complete the Reduce-It trial, a successful result will propel this company into multi-billion company in an instance.  I’ll definitely keep an eye on this company and be ready to jump back in.

With the free cash after selling $AMRN, I added some $LRAD.  I also added a bit more $ORBC.  The reversal of fortune on $AMRN caused me to review my $HYGS holdings.  I decided to reduce my over-exposed position giving its current mini-downtrend.  I was fortunate to get out at breakeven.

$DMRC corrected some after two days of gains.

DMRC_daily

The above weekly chart shows a green bar at the bottom of the trend. There is a high probability a bounce is in the card.  If it bounces from here, I may add some more with the free cash available.

$ORBC also exhibited a weekly green bar to close the week.

ORBC_weekly

Any positive news on the operational status of the recently launched satellites will give this one nice pop and start an uptrend going.

$LRAD is still meandering around the consolidation area.  Price is still on an uptrend line albeit the angle of the uptrend line has declined slightly.

LRAD_daily

The slight decline this week has been in low volume.  What prompted me to add more $LRAD today was due to the fact that price did not go down despite a negative general market downturn.  Let’s see if there is news next week to wake this one up again.

$HYGS was still struggling to find its bottom.

HYGS_daily

Although price is still within the 79 & 89 MA lines, I’m still holding too much position and I didn’t want to risk more drawdown after my port absorbed the $AMRN losses and gave back of gain. Thus, I sold down my position size to about half of original size.  Also notice that price could not climb above the 5 MA line today.

Needless to day, my port gave back a whopping 3.7% for a failed thesis and YTD gain is now at 8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, HYGS and 13% cash.

From my other account:

I dumped my $AMRN $2 Jan 2015 call option for a song since I figured something is better than nothing if I continued to hold. Still holding $FITX and $LRAD.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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