03-26-2014 Trading Journal

Today the bear began to show its face with a bit of a teeth exposed…

SPY_Daily

While price is still inside the consolidation range, it is important that price bounces some from here or we may be seeing more selling again.  There are three supports that are the bull defenders against the bear.  The lower range of the consolidation range and the 79 & 89 MA lines.  Next line of support is the low of early February.  If these supports cannot stop the bear, we may be looking at the beginning of the bear market.  No, it won’t be a big drop like 2008; but it will be a slow torturing trend for those who decides to hold for the bounce that never comes.  Hey, I’m getting ahead of myself here, pardon my senseless bearish sentiment.  Nothing is confirmed until you meet with Mr. Hindsight; but by then all Mr. Hindsight will tell you is, “I told you so!”.

Today price action made me regret selling my $TZA position yesterday morning.  Yes, I’m human so I’m entitled to feel a bit  “cheated” when my prediction was right on target but my conviction lacked resolve.  There you have it, conviction plays an important part in catching a runner, especially when you are trying to catch it at the starting gate.  By lacking conviction, I cheated myself of the $TZA profit.

I considered myself lucky that only about 10% of my three-days settlement cash was released today ’cause I spent it all by adding to $CARA, $SEED, and $MZOR in the morning looking for a bounce.  Then I had a meeting that lasted most of the trading hours; by the time I came out, I was in for a not-too-nice surprise.  While the three names I mentioned did not cause that much damage, it was the $LRAD drop that compound my losses a bit more.

However, I’m seeing a lot of potential bounces here:

Take a look at $SEED chart below:

seed_daily

Did you see the price literally settled down on the 89 XMA line?  If there is more available cash free up tomorrow, I’ll buy the bounce (only if there is a bounce) to add more.  No, I’m not averaging down, I’m merely trying to rebuild my position back to its original size.  Remember, per my “personal” definition, if I’m scaling into a position when price is dropping, I’m simply accumulating a position; however, once I’m done with the accumulation, any add-on will be considered averaging down ’cause I’ll be exceeding my risk level I’ve originally established for myself.

$MZOR again trekked toward the lower consolidation range.

MZOR_daily

If it takes out the lower range, I’m going to have to sell it to cut losses.  However, I prefer that it bounces from here like it did several times before.  The fact that it could not bounce from the lower range means the bear is stronger than before; hence my resolve to cut losses from breakdown.

$CARA is reporting tomorrow after hour so I’m holding this one for the gamble.

I also sold $NUGT when it took out yesterday low in the morning.  Thanks goodness I did ’cause it saved me a lot of grief from losing even more in the meltdown.  See, it pays to cut your losses fast to avoid a bigger losses later.

Despite another down day, I’m still up 11% for the year.

Current holdings:

LRAD, SVBL, MZOR, CARA, SEED and 38% cash.

From my other account:

I added more $FITX to bring it back to my original size.  And yes, I paid more to buy them back.

FITX_daily

Despite today market slaughter, $FITX held very well!

I also bought $MCIG, another cannabis play.  While going over the cannabis selection the other days, this one pulled me in.  I like the concept of pen-style vaporizer for $10.  It is affordable and most people won’t have to think too hard to buy it.  If I lose the pen-vape, no big deal.

MCIG_daily

One other reason I like $MCIG is because of the technical bounce I see on the chart.  Price was bouncing from yesterday green bar that bounced from the 38% Fib retracement.  Did you see that price actually closed higher today?

Now, I’m all set to take advantage of the growing cannabis market.  May this port one day eclipses my main port mentioned above.

My 2 cents.

 

 



Categories: Daily trading Journal

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