12-30-2013 Trading Journal with emphasis on $GALE

Market decided to take another breather day by staying neutral once again.

Stock Gawd has favored me today once again as well.  As I’ve predicted last Friday, $GALE was either going to take the baton as a runner or it was going to run concurrently with $KNDI.  Well, as luck would have it, the latter was the ones happened today.

Why would $GALE continue to head higher?  I see there are two major catalysts that are favoring $GALE in the coming year- its rapid relief drug Abstral for breakthrough cancer pain and its pipelines of breast cancer treatment drug- NeuVax.

– $GALE management has the good foresight to secure the right to sell Abstral in the US.  And by doing so, $GALE may have hit the jackpot when no one is looking.  Take a look at $INSY. INSY Therapeutics Inc. is the major competitor to $GALE’s Abstral since it is selling their own version of Fentanyl sublingual drug similar to Abstral.  Yet, $INSY carries a market cap of $870 million compares to $GALE $507 million after today close.  While $INSY has other pipelines in the work, its main revenue generator, I believe, is its Fentanyl sublingual drug.

– With proper marketing, I believe $GALE can take market share away from $INSY giving enough time.  Thus, by its Abstral product alone, $GALE has the potential to be worth at least current market cap before counting its breast cancer NeuVax treatment.

– If there are any positive news from its NeuVax trial results, price has no where else to go but up and up.

This is why I’m not surprised to see $GALE bounce higher today.  Friday chart pattern told me it would go higher and it did.

Take a look at the daily chart below:

Gale_daily

Price has taken out the 12/5 high at $4.78 with volume higher than the last five days.  Momentum indicators below haven’t shown to be overbought yet; thus, I’m expecting this breakout to go higher this week.

Now look at the monthly chart below:

gale_monthly

Whoa! Did you see the breakout from the high of Dec 2010 at $4.08?  From a long-term perspective, $GALE has broken out of a three years high and the chart looks like it is going to go much higher.

Meanwhile, $KNDI did not disappointed.  Instead of handing the baton to $GALE, it ran side-by-side with it.   In the morning, I was struck by a strong urge to sell some $KNDI to lock in profit.  It was my swing trade mentality that kept urging me.  To counter this urge, I’ve to remind myself about the lost opportunity I had with $LNG.  Back in the early days when $LNG was trading around $5 bucks, I loaded up big and gave way to my urge and locked in profit around $7.  After that, due to volatility, I never got back in.  $LNG is now trading at $43!  With $LNG in mind, I was able to sit on my hands.

I’m sure it will be a wild ride here.  I’m expecting to see some profit-evaporation due to volatility and profit-taking.  And I’ll need to remain steadfast in holding my $KNDI position ’cause I know that if I try to swing trade, I’m going to mess up a good long-term trade here ’cause you will never know when the next surprise rally will hit this stock.

KNDI_daily

From the daily chart above, $KNDI gapped up nicely but ended a red bar.  That may not mean anything but room must be given for some correction and profit-taking.  I’m just satisfied that the last few days have helped my portfolio to regain higher ground.

Asides from $KNDI and $GALE, $AMRN also popped back up today.  I’m a firm believer that there is a possibility for FDA to reconsider $AMRN position and perhaps will meet $AMRN half-way in some fashion.  Furthermore, I’m impressed by the citizen petition that was submitted to the FDA by the grassroots organization called EPAdruginitiative.com.  Read the petition and you will understand why I decided to add more 2014 March $5 call option at 12 cents to increase my bet.  The way I see it, the reward far exceeds the risk many-times over if FDA turns a favorable corner.  If not, I won’t regret my bet since the potential loss is definitely manageable for me.

AMRN_daily

From the daily chart above, you can see a healthy bounce with price closing above the 5 & 15 MA lines.

I spoke too soon on Friday regarding $XONE.  Today, $XONE flip-flopped with $DDD and $SSYS with the former going down and the latter going up!  Oh well.  Nevertheless, I’m in the money with $XONE and is holding this one thru 2014.

$LRAD, $CERS, and $KGJI were not performing well today but its smaller corrections were totally masked by the gains from $KNDI, $GALE, and $AMRN.  Huge gains from $KNDI has given my portfolio another healthy gain.

Due to $KNDI continued price increase, it has become the largest position in my portfolio with $LRAD coming in second.

Current holdings:

KNDI, LRAD, KGJI, CERS, INO, XONE, GALE, AMRN, TINY (fully speculated).

I also increase my stake in $PHOT in my other account (the same one where I trade options) in preparing for Colorado to open its door to legal pot starting Jan. 1st, 2014.  Per the article here: Colorado To Blaze Marijuana Tourism Trail In 2014 With Legal Pot Shops, it stated:

Whether there will be enough pot to meet the expected rush next year is another matter altogether. State laws impeded efforts to ramp up production before Jan. 1, meaning it could take several months for supply to catch up with demand.

The way I look at it, I’m expecting to see a lot of will-be marijuana growers lining up in front of $PHOT door looking for financing to start their pot farming on Jan. 1st.  Hence my adding more to $PHOT today.

My 2 cents.



Categories: Daily trading Journal

Tags: ,

2 replies

  1. I commend you for your persistence and timing. I hope I can learn more of how you pick these winners

    • Thank you Esteband for your encouraging words. My current portfolio is a result of an on going evolving door of selecting stocks that will stick after I throw it on the wall. My number one criteria in selecting the hi-beta stocks to buy is that it must possesses “new” technology or bio-technology that has the potential to be disruptive.

      E.g.

      $INO has the synthetic vaccines that can render most convention vaccines obsolete if it is proven to work.

      $LRAD has the long-range acoustic device that can send sound beam in a directional path (like a laser beam) for a very long distance.

      $KNDI manufactures EV cars and sell to car-sharing garages (that operates like giant vending machine); a business model that is the first of its kind in the world. Potential is huge if this concept catches on across the great China.

      $TINY has a portfolio of private investment in a diversified new technologies focuses on nanotechnology. Some of these investments are still in germinating state.

      As you can see from my journals, I also rely heavily on chart reading to help me select the ones that are ready to move.

      Hope the above helps.

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